Not long now til the first of the four Group 1 races here today at Sha Tin Racecourse in Hong Kong, with the HK Vase going as race 4, followed by the HK Sprint (R5), the HK Mile (R7), and the HK Cup (R8). Gorgeous weather, and any fast-ground-loving horse will be well suited by course conditions.

The Vase comes first because theoretically its the least important of these four races, but this year it has the biggest name on the card in Highland Reel, as well as the emerging Talismanic, who can show his Breeders' Cup Turf win was more than a one-race form peak. I'm guessing that Talismanic is for real.

Isolate his firm-turn runs and you'll see his only loss in five starts came in the 2016 Arc, a race in which he didn't appear to fire regardless of the going. French fast-ground hores for the most part are living in the wrong place, and trainer Andre Fabre, who has a Vase win with Flintshire, understandably elected to focus on a late-season international campaign that included two stops, Del Mar and Sha Tin, where his horse was likely to get the right ground. Talismanic has had one of the lightest training regimes this week of any international horse here, hiss fastest work moderate one-lap gallops on the dirt track (he did no training on turf) -- and I like that! Fabre clearly has a plan in mind, and Talismanic, having traveled already this fall from France to California, surely wil benefit from a schedule meant to keep him fresh. He has post 1, same as in the BC Turf, and I think he gets a similarly favorable trip.

As for Highland Reel, he is obviously an excellent horse, one of the great travelers of recent history, and a winner over a dizzying array of configurations and conditions. He was undone by a speed duel here last year at the end of a campaign longer than his 2017 season, and he clearly belongs in the conversation, but there is a lingering sense Highland Reel has not been quite the same horse this year, and I think there's reason to doubt he bounces back to today.

That's how I'll be the race, keying Talismanic in trifectas and exactas and trying to get Highland Reel out of a high placing. Tosen Basil has caught the eye during morning training all week, will be a price, and will be on my tickets, as will Tiberian, who also has been energetic and focused in his training here. Those will be the two I'll use for second in the trifecta, and I'll play exacts with them atop Talismanic. I'll spread the rest of my money on exactas with Talismanic atop everyone save Highland Reel.