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Thumb_beertwitternew Mike Beer , Aqueduct , 03/16/2018 - DRF Live Posted : Mar 16, 2018, 11:09 AM

Aqueduct Friday preview

Nine races on the Friday card, which begins at 1:20 ET and features a carryover in excess of $27k in the pick six.  

The featured race on the card is the 7th, an allowance/optional claimer for older sprinters.  The field of six hard-hitters has combined for 44 wins.  

The horse to beat is Angry Moon, who is exiting a pair of runner-up efforts in similar affairs.  In those last two starts, Angry Moon ran into Skyler's Scramjet and Do Share, the 1-2 finishers in last Saturday's Grade 3 Tom Fool.  He appears to be the main speed in this race, though there are some drawbacks to this horse at a short price.  

From a wagering perspective, Angry Moon has always been a fun horse to fool around with at bigger prices, as he has speed and has been known to pull off an upset or two when he can get control of the pace.  At a shorter price, while the horse to beat here, his edge over several of his rivals is not so great.  His last win came back in October of 2016, and while that span covers only six starts for this horse, he was loose on the lead in each of those last two races before getting outfinished at the end.  

If he is to be defeated today, it will be up to one of his rivals to keep him within range early.  The most likely candidate for that assignment seems to be Loki's Vengeance.  He has plenty of speed, and will occasionally show up with a big race, though he did not run well when returned from a layoff last November, and he went directly back to the sidelines after that race.  

David Jacobson's pair of Wake Up in Malibu and Ostrolenka seem more likely to defeat the favorite, assuming that is going to happen.  

Ostrolenka has not run well in any of his three starts since returning from a layoff in December.  He has caught a couple of wet tracks recently which could be used as an excuse, though it is worth pointing out that he ran perhaps his best race during a productive 2017 campaign over a muddy, sealed track at Saratoga.  He was on a very good run at that time, and he is plenty capable of beating a horse like Angry Moon is he can get back to that kind of race.  

Wake Up in Malibu has been in better form recently for Jacobson, winning two of his five starts since starting back from his layoff, and most recently finishing a fine 2nd to his streaking stablemate Harlan Punch in a similar race over a mile.  He sprints effectively and has tactical speed from the rail.  

Race 4 is another sprint for quality horses, though it has unfortunately been reduced to just four betting interests with the scratch of #4 Hey Jabber Jaw.  That scratch takes some pace out of the race, which enhances the chances of Still Krz, the more formidable part of a Michael Dubb entry, and it does not help the horse I liked in the race, Very Very Stella, who will be trying to close ground in the stretch.

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Spot Plays

Race 2:

#4 Midnight Bounty

Has raced competitively over this distance in last two starts over fast dirt.

Does not like a wet track, so loss as the favorite last time can be excused. 

Has the tactical speed to land a trip in this race.

4/1 on ML.  

 

Race 3:

#6 Conquest Expresso

Has improved noticeably in recent starts.

Trainer has been on a good run lately.

Caught a sloppy track last time after putting pair of strong races together over fast dirt. 

8/1 on ML.   

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