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Thumb_beertwitternew Mike Beer , Aqueduct , 03/25/2018 - DRF Live Posted : Mar 25, 2018, 12:41 PM

Aqueduct Sunday preview

The track is fast for Sunday's nine races, with a first post of 1:20 ET.  There are no scratches from any of the races.

The first race features a heavy favorite in the form of class-dropping Micozzi.  He won each of his first two starts off the claim for  Linda Rice, and he has earning figures that are faster than what his competition has been capable of recently.  

My exacta horse is Bunyaan, who actually ran pretty well while back on fast dirt here eight days ago despite enduring a tough trip.  

The 3rd race is for $25k two-life claimers sprinting, and the form is less than inspiring.  That lack of form, especially from the shorter prices, led me to Cleo as a top pick.  Cleo is a maiden facing winners, and she is slow on the way in, but from limited starts on dirt, including her lone run over a fast main track earlier this month, where she was facing MSW company off the claim.  If nothing else, she may be finding the right field.  

In race #5, Jump Ruler is the horse to beat following her decent effort while finishing 3rd at this level last month.  she was able to control the early pace that day, and she was no match in the stretch, but she was facing a better field for the level. 

Dreams Are Free is interesting simply as the new face to a group of familiar horses who just aren't that inspiring.  She has some speed, faced a better field of horses two starts back, and won over this distance last time at Gulfstream. 

In the 6th I want to try Bar None, mostly due to the fact that he was claimed by Rudy Rodriguez out of his last race.  Bar None has never won routing, but he ran pretty well over this distance last month after missing the break, during a time when he wasn't racing in particularly good form.  Rudy, of course, has crazy good numbers off the claim in this situation - first off the claim, dirt routes, 31-60 day layoff, AQU: 23 for 45, 51%, $3.61.  

None of the above will mean anything if Nigel's Destiny can still run.  He is taking a precipitous drop in class following a non-effort off the long layoff last time, which makes him very difficult to trust in this race, but, again, he is too good if he isn't all done.  

Race 7 is for maidens over a mile, and it has a competitive field of six.  Ballard High scratched out of a much easier race sprinting Saturday to await this spot, where he gets to stretch out in distance.  He has to improve but as a second-time starter for Linda Rice that can be expected, and he did get off to a very poor start in his debut, before making a mile late run.  

Racing Raven and Road to Meath are the logical shorter prices, though neither has run a particularly compelling race to this point.  

The other wildcard in the race, along with Ballard High, is Split Verdict.  He appeared to be a horse who needed his first start after getting outrun early and then starting to find himself late, before galloping out well past the wire.  

As opposed to Ballard High, who is expected to improve after a race, his trainer tends to get the most out of his runners first time out.  

The $100k Cicada goes as race #8.  Rudy has three of the seven entrants, including the two favorites on the morning line in Strategic Dreams and Lezendary.  

Strategic Dreams is four for five in her career and already a multiple stakes winner, including a victory in the Ruthless over this track most recently.  She isn't fast, having a Beyer top of 74 on the way in, but she runs every time and has a versatile running style.  

Lezendary is faster than her stablemate by virtue of her maiden win last time with new blinkers.  She's okay, and can race forward early, but not sure how much I would want a short price on her.  

I picked Shamrock Rose on top for Mark Casse as she turns back to sprint for the first time since her debut.  She won that debut vs. stakes rivals, and she just appears to be a horse who will appreciate the turn back.  

I am also using Rudy's "other" horse, Danyelli, in the last Pick 4.  Danyelli has already run fast enough to win here, and since that 87 Beyer effort over maidens, she has caught a sloppy track, and then cut back to a shorter sprint at Laurel where she was trying to close from off the pace for the first time.  

Race 9 is a hungry field of maiden claimers and I am simply taking a shot and trying Hot Possebility at a price.  She has been distanced in two of her four starts to date, but she was stretched out and moved up in class for some reason last time, and in her two reasonable races she actually showed a little run both times.  If she is going to win, it is going to be in a field like this one.  

 

 

 

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