It appears that Battle Station (2) will be the favorite in this race, and I don't quite get it. While he's run well against New York-breds, he's stepping up into a much tougher open company race this time. He can win, but I wouldn't want him at this short of a price. Breaking the Rules (1) will also be a short price, despite the fact that his debut win hardly suggests that he’s among the fastest runners in this race. However, people like to follow these Shug McGaughey horses on the theory that they will improve with experience, and that’s certainly possible. I just don’t see value in betting him.

Pop the Hood (3) is the obvious alternative to these two. He returned to the races in February with a solid effort in the slop, despite getting caught down on the inside for much of his trip. He’s capable of better than that, but he now has to deal with another layoff. I’m using him, but there’s an interesting new face in this race that I want to consider.

TIBR (4) has made all of his prior starts on turf in Great Britain, despite the fact that he possesses a distinctly dirt-oriented pedigree. He’s by dirt sire Distorted Humor out of a Bernardini dam, who herself is a daughter of Grade 1 winning dirt horse Finder’s Fee. Clearly, Tibr is bred to excel on the main track. He now makes his stateside debut and his first start as a new gelding for trainer Graham Motion. While Motion does not do this often, he has had some success with overseas shippers trying dirt. Over the past five years, he’s started six foreign shippers in scheduled dirt races; two won, and two finished second, with a win ROI of $6.00.

THE PLAY

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,5