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Thumb_brad-free Brad Free , 07/28/2018 - General Posted : Jul 28, 2018, 11:51 AM

Del Mar Saturday preview

Handicapping considerations, Saturday at Del Mar …

Race 1 – Chasing Yesterday (7), whose sibling American Pharoah won the 2015 Triple Crown, is a “good thing” based on pedigree and works. Trainer Bob Baffert is 8 for 13 the past five summers at Del Mar with juvenile fillies that start favored first time out.

Race 2 – Favorites won two of four turf sprints here, longshots ($49 and $150) won the others. Storming Lady (8) the one to catch in this MSW, Suspicious Spouse (9) is bred for turf, firsters Screenshot (1) and Great Return (10) trained well, ’Return in particular.

Race 4 – Kershaw (7) at 8-5? His runner-up finish at this maiden-40 level last out would bury the field. No surprise if Kershaw starts at odds-on.

Race 5 – The turf rails move to a 12-foot setting after rails-at-30 produced deep-closing winners six of seven turf routes this week. The rails-up, closers-friendly profile this week is something to remember the next time the rails go out and the faulty cliché is repeated that tactical speed is essential at 30. That is incorrect, although it makes theoretical sense.

Force (4) is the best horse in this N1X mile, while a pair of “live” 8-1 shots will rally: The Big Train (10) and Avalanche (11). The pace is likely to be set by Allaboutmike (3).

Race 6 – Bold Fantasy (10) is this handicapper’s best “gamble” on the card. First off the claim by Jonathon Wong is a winning move in So Cal. The gelding’s figures are good enough for this Calbred N1X/optional $20k sprint. Doubt we’ll get 5-1.

Race 7 – Pee Wee Reese (4) is the speed and the favorite in this Calbred turf route stakes, while “back-class” veterans What a View (1) and Ashleyluvssugar (3) once were good enough. This handicapper prefers lightly raced up-and-comers with pressing styles: Fly to Mars (7) and Well Developed (9), along with Pee Wee Reese. Good, deep race.

Race 9 – Perhaps it was a mistake to pick American Anthem (4) over Roy H (3) in this Grade 1 sprint. Roy H is training super for his comeback, according to workout analyst Toby Turrell in the Daily Racing Form Del Mar Clocker Report. Roy H blew out three furlongs this week; Turrell reported: “… terrific blowout over the track. Kent in the irons. He ripped through the final quarter in 23.00. Loaded in the flesh and coat. RATING: B+.” Yep, it was a mistake to pick against Roy H.

Turrell was less impressed with the latest work by American Anthem: “Made hard work of things in team drill with Lookie Loo. Heavily pressured to be slightly best. RATING: B-.”

Race 10 – Tariq (12) favored in this MSW turf mile for 2yos based on his runner-up debut on dirt, while Ocean Fury (7) ran very well in his fourth-place debut on turf.

Ten-race card, first post 2 p.m.

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