Libby’s Tail (9) is a deserving favorite as she returns to New York still in search of her second win. The recent switch to turf appears to have rejuvenated her, and she’s now switching into the barn of one of the top trainers on the circuit. While she’s running at the same N1X level, she was arguably facing tougher optional-claiming fields out in California. That is definitely true for her last race, out of which second-place finisher Meal Ticket returned to win prior to finishing a solid fourth in a Grade 2 event, and third-place finisher Vexatious came back to win a stakes. If Libby’s Tail improves on that form here, she is likely to win this race. However, I do question whether she still possesses the quickness to win going six furlongs, as she lacked a strong turn of foot when she tried this distance last October. I’m using her, but others may offer better value.

A few of these are exiting the ninth race on Sep. 8 won by Orecchiette. The turf condition had a lot to do with the results that day, as the course was rated good, but the going was playing closer to yielding. The horse that I want to bet out of that affair is ELOWEASEL (4). In my opinion, she didn’t seem to handle the going, and she could never muster a rally. I’m willing to forgive that performance because her effort two back at Saratoga suggested that she was good enough to step up and beat a field at this open allowance level. In that Aug. 6 race, she ran down the very talented Mentality as those two drew well clear of the others, and the superior 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned seems legitimate. I expect a better effort this time, and she’s going to be a square price.

I also want to use Tap Tap Taparoo (2), who is somewhat of a wild card as she steps up against winners for the first time. She needs to run a bit faster, but she was dominant last time and would not be a major surprise.

THE PLAY

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,6,9
Trifecta: 4,9 with 4,9 with 1,2,6