Total cost: $128

 
RACE 3  [ A: 4 | B: -- | C: 6,8 ]  

With the scratch of likely favorite Harley Q, Flush (4) becomes a very likely winner of this race. While she was never a major factor in her debut, she earned a speed figure that she can build upon in this second start. This also may be a significantly weaker field than the one she faced last time, as none of the first time starters appear to be particularly live. I’ll use a couple of backups, but for Pick-6 purposes Flush is a heavy lean.
 

RACE 4  [ A: 5 | B: -- | C: 2,3 ]  

I’m not trying to beat likely favorite Stay Fond (5), especially after scratches. Last time, this mare was left with too much ground to make up and actually did well to get within 3 lengths of the winner considering that the race was dominated on the front end. I think Stay Fond is likely to turn the tables this time at what figures to be a short price. Harkness (3) has a right to improve second off the layoff, but she faced a weak field on return and has never been much of a winning type.
 

RACE 5  [ A: 5,8 | B: -- | C: -- ]  

Two second-time starters figure to dominate the wagering here, as Cheatham Hill (8) or Countable (5) are far and way the two most likely winners of this race. The former ran very well in her debut, as she launched a wide, sustained run from well behind to get up for second behind the promising Shelley Ann. Trainer Jason Servis can get horses to improve in their second starts and he has been having a strong meet. Many of the same points can be made about Countable, who also closed well in her career debut. Linda Rice is one of the best trainers in the game with second-time starters, so this filly figures to take a step forward this time. My only reservation with her is that she’s coming out of what seemed to be a weaker race.
 

RACE 6  [ A: 5 | B: -- | C: 3,4 ]   

I see no reason to take a stand against heavy favorite Bavaro (5), who is back at the same level as last time. He dominated from start to finish that day and he has a half-furlong less to negotiate this time. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that he will be clearly in front in a situation favoring the leader. I’ll use Sol the Freud (3) and Gypsum Johnny (4) as minor backups, but they are going to need the favorite to stub his toe.
 

RACE 7  [ A: 2,6 | B: 1,11 | C: -- ]  

This is easily the most intriguing race on the card, as there are a number of enigmatic contenders. Two of the most naturally talented horses in the race are Quest for Fire and Dark Ops, but both are difficult to trust. Quest for Fire returned from a lengthy layoff following his fast debut win and never appeared to be comfortable. He’s now returning just 6 weeks later in the barn of Ray Handal and needs to turn his form around. Dark Ops (11) was perhaps even more impressive when breaking his maiden back in October, but he looked like a completely different horse when abruptly stopping on the turn as the 1-2 favorite last time. What complicates matters even further for these two is the likely pace scenario, since the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace. Both of these horses broke their maidens while racing on uncontested early leads and they are unlikely to enjoy such soft trips here with speedy runners like Foolish Ghost and Three to Thirteen also in the mix. Among the short prices, I prefer Ready to Escape (2). He ran fast to break his maiden last time, finally putting it all together after showing promise in his first four starts. I didn’t like the way he drifted out through the lane last time, especially since he’s apparently had some physical issues. That said, he’s proven that he’s capable of stalking the pace in prior starts. Another horse to consider is Charlie McCoy (1). He ran a strong race at this level back in June and has had excuses since then, as he caught a sloppy track two back and was badly compromised by a poor start last time. I’m using both of these runners, but I think this is a race in which we can look outside the box. I’m taking a shot with bigger price Vicar’s Legend (6). I know he looks cheaper than these at first glance, but this gelding has been steadily improving in his recent starts. He hinted that he was starting to round into form with his fourth-place effort on Nov. 10, and he has consistently improved in each start since. His most recent performance on Dec. 22 was clearly his best, as he traveled well every step of the way and might have finished much closer if not for traffic in the stretch. This is the toughest field he’s ever encountered, but I think the added furlong and an expected fast pace will benefit him
  

RACE 8  [ A: 9 | B: 3,4,10 | C: 6,8 ]  

Missbigtimes (9) will win this race if she repeats any of her prior fast track efforts. This filly has been fairly inconsistent during her brief career, but I do think it is worth stressing that all of her poor performances have come on turf or sloppy tracks. I don’t fully trust her and 6 1/2 furlongs is a bit of a stretch, but she’s supposed to win if she shows up. Yet, given her propensity to throw in a clunker, I want to have ample coverage if we get alive to this leg. The logical backup options are Ma Mo (3) and Fiveinthemorning (10), and I also want to upgrade longshot Highleelikelee (4), who ran deceptively well in her debut. Wanna Be Regal (6) and My First Gal (8) are Cs.