If Dr. Hipp (1) runs back to his maiden score from May, he is going to beat this field. However, plenty of time has passed since then and the drop in for a tag off the lengthy layoff does not inspire confidence. His most recent start in the Pegasus at Monmouth in June was fairly disappointing considering the overall lack of quality in that field. He’s the kind of horse that you have to use prominently, but he’s going to be a very short price due to the connections and I’d rather look elsewhere.

Rudy Rodriguez has two entrants in this field and both are viable alternatives. D’ambrosio (5) has some appeal as he moves up in class off the claim. Rodriguez actually does very well with dirt routers in this situation, but I wish his recent form was more encouraging. He failed to break alertly two back and was soundly defeated by inferior rivals last time.

My top pick is Rudy’s recent maiden winner WHERE'S RUDY (7). Risked for a $20,000 tag in his debut, he won with authority despite going off at surprisingly generous 6-1 odds. He showed good early speed that day and was drawing away from next-out winner Hot Mesa in the late stages. While that runner-up has had many chances at the maiden level, his effort totally validates the speed figure that Where’s Rudy was assigned for his winning effort. Now this horse is moving up in class and stretching out, but I think he may be able to handle it. There doesn’t appear to be too much early speed in this field, and he’s bred to route, since his dam is a half-sister to 2003 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Halfbridled. Over the past 5 years, Rudy Rodriguez is 8 for 32 (25 percent, $2.23 ROI) with debut winners making their second career starts on dirt.

THE PLAY

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,5,6
Trifecta: 1,7 with 1,7 with 2,4,5,6