Arrogate has recent history on his side in the Grade 1 TVG Pacific Classic. Despite an uncharacteristic flat showing last out, Arrogate is the likely favorite over Accelerate, Collected and others in the $1 million race Aug. 19 at Del Mar.

The Pacific Classic has been kind to recent favorites – four straight, seven of the last 13. Arrogate, however, is different from recent winning favorites California Chrome, Beholder, Shared Belief and Game On Dude. They entered the Pacific Classic following wins, while Arrogate finished fourth by more than 15 lengths in his most recent start.

Arrogate would not be the first Pacific Classic winner to engineer a form reversal. Five years ago, Dullahan shipped to Del Mar after being drubbed in the Haskell Invitational at Monmouth. Dullahan returned to form in the Pacific Classic, and upset Game on Dude to win by a half-length.

Ten days until the biggest race of summer. In the Pacific Classic, Arrogate is either a slam dunk or a bet-against.