The Del Mar main track got faster this week; the shift occurred halfway through the Thursday card. Due to changes in track maintenance, or cooler weather, or both, the main track produced faster times late Thursday and throughout the Friday twilight program.
The quicker surface, however, produced no significant change in track profile. Forwardly placed runners continue to hold the advantage, as they did before the track got quicker. It is dirt, after all. Early speed is almost always an attribute on the main track.
But if the Del Mar surface continues to produce faster times, handicappers can be on the lookout for potential changes that might include the following:
Form reversals: form established over the slow and tiring track early in the meet could change dramatically on the faster surface. At very least, bettors might be skeptical to take a short price based on a race run over a slow track.
A possible example occurred Friday, when Pretty Owl finished fourth as the odds-on favorite in the sixth race. Her previous start was super, on a slow surface opening day of the meet. Friday, on a quicker surface, she completely misfired.
Trainer trends: Peter Miller trains at San Luis Rey Downs, a surface that produces faster work times than Del Mar. Miller horses worked well at San Luis Rey, but many struggled on the slow Del Mar surface. Miller’s win rate this meet on dirt is 12 percent, half his normal rate.
If the Del Mar surface remains quick, similar to San Luis Rey, look for Miller trainees to improve. The same applies to other San Luis Rey-based trainers such as Scott Hansen and the off-site runners trained by Del Mar-based Richard Baltas and Phil D’Amato.
Track profile: Late-runners did not win their share early in the meet, particularly around two turns. That probably will not change, even if the Del Mar surface remains fast. But it could. Late-runners are easily discouraged, by kickback or struggling to keep up.
If late-runners handle quicker footing and the pace is legit, there might be an increased number of winners from off the pace. Perhaps the trend already began. Two of four mile dirt races this week were won from the back of the field (Mistressofthenight, Veronica Bay). That happened only three times the first three weeks of the meet, at a mile on dirt.
As always, the fundamentals of handicapping supersede the nuances of track surface. Condition, class, speed and pace remain the most important considerations.
But if the Del Mar main track continues to produce final times as fast as late Thursday and Friday, handicappers should at least be prepared for the possibility of change.
First post Saturday is 2 p.m.