It’s a big week for turf sprints at Del Mar—two on Wednesday and the $75,000 Green Flash Handicap on Friday. With the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint at Del Mar this fall, it’s nice that normalcy has returned to the five-furlong course.
The first three summers after Del Mar replaced its course (2014 through 2016), turf sprints were downright bizarre – favorites won just 8 of 50 (16 percent); a $2 win bet on every starter in every race produced a flat profit each summer (three-year total: $832 wagered, $1,037.60 returned). Occasional chaos is fun, but the Del Mar trend was extreme.
Thankfully, the “bet-every-starter” angle has been laid to rest. Favorites this summer are 3-for-12, the median payoff is $9 and the highest payoff was $25.80 by Snow Cloud, a course specialist now 3-for-5 in Del Mar turf sprints.
The horse-for-course angle still applies – half the Del Mar turf sprints this summer were won by a horse that previously won or finished in the money over the course.
Late-runners won most turf sprints – eight from the back half of the field, two forwardly placed, while two led every call. Posts 1-2 accounted for six winners, the outside two posts (irrespective of field size) won three races.
The bottom line: Del Mar turf sprints remain a handicapping challenge, and closers hold the edge. But this summer, five-furlong sprints are a lot less baffling.
Race 1 selections: Not Too Shiny (1), Wedding Blush (7), Little Bit Lovely (4)
Race 3: Sturdy One (7), Snow Cloud (2), Lajatico (5)
Friday race 7 (Green Flash Handicap): Richard’s Boy (4), Guns Loaded (11), Rocket Heat (10)
First post Wednesday, 2 p.m.