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Thumb_brad-free Brad Free , Del Mar , 08/23/2017 , Race 1 - DRF Live Posted : Aug 23, 2017, 12:08 PM

Del Mar preview: notes, stats, lyrics

Summer is winding down; only two weeks remain at Del Mar. Wednesday preview …

Race 1 – If she runs as fast as two weeks ago, favorite Bridal Arch (4) can win this starter allowance/optional claiming mile. But the likely pacesetter faces challenges including a main track that changed from early in the meet. The surface is faster, it has benefitted two-turn closers and reduced the number of front-running winners. Only one of the last 10 dirt races at one mile was won by the pacesetter.

Other challenges Bridal Arch faces are anomalies – she wheels back on short notice (two weeks), and favorites are 0-for-13 at a mile on dirt since Aug. 6. The truth is Bridal Arch looks tough. And yet, this handicapper’s top choice is Online Request (5), who returns to dirt and could get a great trip positioned second behind the favorite. She is 7-2.

Race 3 – Trainer Peter Miller had a tough go this meet, winning less than 10 percent. Miller is re-emerging; he won with three of his last six favorites, a trend that might continue with the day’s most probable winner Mining Diamonds (3) in this $25k claiming N2L sprint. And here’s a Miller stat – first-time claim tag and favored – that adds more support: since last fall, Miller has started nine first-time-tag favorites: five wins, four seconds.

Race 4 – Before backing front-runner favorite Summer Lady (10) in this $25k claiming turf mile, know this – only 4 of 38 turf miles this summer were won by the pacesetter. With the turf rails at 30 feet, as Wednesday, pacesetters are 0-for-6. This handicapper’s top choice is Miz Strawberry Dee (1).

Race 6 – This turf sprint looks simple – stretch-running favorite Winemenow (4) or second choice front-runner Ready to Hula Lula (2). Races that “look simple” often turn out to be anything but.

Race 7 – Sam Cooke would back the favorite in this minor stakes: “Cupid (6) draw back your bow, and let your arrow go …” But skeptical bettors are wary of a Grade 1 winner in a non-graded stake. Yes, of course, Cupid might win as the 4-5 favorite.

However, the improving Curlin Rules (3) can upset at 7-2 if he runs as well as 18 days earlier when he won a N2X by more than five lengths. This handicapper will side with Ozzy Osbourne: "I'm breaking all the rules, breaking all the rules."

First post Wednesday, 2 p.m.

Rock on.

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