Sharp local really seem to believe Seasons Bloom is the one to beat in the HK Mile. I know less than they - but am less convinced.

Seasons Bloom is a fine horse who already has put together a solid early HK season. He's won three of his last four starts and has been finishing off his races with aplomb. I'm just not sure how strong the local mile division has been so far this season, and whether Seasons Bloom has much upside today, though Jo Moreira calls him his best chance at G1 win today.

Helene Paragon, who looked to be having a good progression into this race, had a disappointing training race followed by a very average work this week that left his connections concerned he's off form right now. Beauty Only, who won this race last year, seems to be going the right direction, but perhaps not fast enough to improve sufficiently here. The race has been dominated by locals, however, so feel free to dig deeper, toward something like Contentment, or even, at boxcar odds, Sichuan Dar, though probably not to win.

Europeans have not fared very well in the Mile, and of the four here, I'd prefer Karar over Lancaster Bomber and Roly Poly, the latter poorly drawn, and Lightning Spear.

The Japanese horse Satono Aladdin was my pick of the card last year after working lights-out the week of the Mile, but he never picked up his feet in the race, and has an annoying habit of doing that when things don't go totally his way.