Let’s take a look at the early Pick-5 on Friday at Aqueduct:

Race 1: I think this is primarily a two-horse race between Hembree (5), the favorite, and California Swing (4), whose last race is much better than it seems. You did not want to be on the outside in the Dec. 16 race, and California Swing made the widest move of all. Brianbakescookies (3) is a minor backup, but I think he’s slightly outclassed by the aforementioned pair.

Race 2: Solitary Gem (8) is simply faster than the remaining runners in this field. To me, she’s close to a single. I’ll use Morning Traveler (5), who had legitimate trouble at the start last time, as a remote backup.

Race 3: Cotton Candy Cutie (1) is a deserving favorite off her last effort, which came against a much tougher group than the one she meets today. However, this distance is a bit far for her, and you know one of her main rivals, Unbridledadventure (3), handles this distance and a wet track. They’re the main two. Connie A (4) will also take money, but I’m not convinced she wants to go this far.

Race 4: War Eagle’s Return (5) is the horse to beat, but he needs some pace to close into, and he may not get it. We’ll see how much speed we get from No Hiding Place, but I think Bluegrass Singer (4) is just faster in the early going based on his recent races. He actually didn’t run that badly going a mile last time, and this turnback makes him dangerous. Power Nap (3) and Afleet Martini (7) also have chances.

Race 5: As one of my Top Plays on this card, Pegasus Red (7) is my key to close out this Pick-5. He did not get an ideal trip last time as he was chasing wide, whereas he prefers to make one run from off the pace. Jason Servis has excellent numbers second off the claim in dirt sprints. Bluegrass Prevails (1) and Brimstone (3) are the main challengers, and even Sol the Freud (2) has run fast enough to win recently.