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Thumb_aragona__dave_twitter David Aragona , Aqueduct , 02/08/2018 , Race 5 - DRF Live Posted : Feb 8, 2018, 2:28 PM

Playing Thursday's late Pick-4 at Aqueduct

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Race 5: Daring Prospect (1) looks like the fastest horse in this race based on her recent speed figures. The problem is that each of her recent wins was aided by a strong rail bias. I’m skeptical than she can reproduce those last two performances over a fair track. Littlemissbusiness (3) becomes the obvious alternative. She has simply been facing far more talented runners ever since getting claimed by Mitch Friedman last fall and now she is dropping back to a realistic class level. I’m optimistic that this seven-time winner can earn another victory in this spot. Another runner to consider is Wildcat Belle (4), but she returns just 3 days after winning a race on Monday at Parx.

Race 6: Regalian (2) seems likely to go off favored after running a surprisingly strong race in last month’s Jerome. That said, it’s not as if he ran that much better than Jerome rival Factor This (4), a closer who may have been hindered by the dawdling early pace. However, the horse who interests me most at a bigger price is Davka (7). I like the way this horse has progressed ever since being gelded midway through his 2-year-old season. He put in a vastly improved performance on Oct. 27 and followed that up with a gutsy win on Nov. 17 that is a much stronger effort than it appears. Breaking from the outside going two turns at Del Mar, Davka got hung out five wide around the first turn and raced four wide around the second turn.

Race 7: This is primarily a two-horse race between Frost Wise (1) and Holiday Disguise (3). I’ll use them in equal strength, with the pair of Asmussen runners as distant backups.

Race 8: The scratch of the morning-line favorite makes For Honor (6) the horse to beat, but I’m skeptical of her ability to stretch out to a mile off the lengthy layoff. I think the horse you want here is Special Risk (2), who ran a competitive speed figure against tougher company last time and has consistently run well since getting stretched out to a mile on dirt. B Three (3) is also not without a chance, but her last effort was poor.

The Play:

{All A's} for $2
{3 A's with 1 B} for $1
{3 A's with 1 C} for $0.50
{2 A's with 2 B's} for $0.50

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