Race 6: The top contenders in this race are incredibly evenly matched, so trips figure to become very important. The runner coming off the best recent performance is Paranoia (7), who finished a game second to quality runner My Roxy Girl in her most recent start at this level. She was allowed to set a moderate pace that day but did fight on gamely once headed in the stretch. A repeat of that performance makes her tough, but she faces a more difficult scenario today. There are multiple speeds drawn to her inside, and the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace. She could get hung out wide chasing a much swifter pace. I want a horse who can close from just off the pace, and Cathy Naz (1) seems like the best option. I don’t expect this filly to be that big of a price, but she just feels like the most likely winner of this race given the circumstances. She made a strong run off the pace to win her maiden last time out, drawing clear by six lengths. Furthermore, it’s a positive sign that Dylan Davis hangs onto the mount given that he clearly had multiple options in this race. At a much bigger price, one runner I would want to use along with her is Dream Fever (6). She obviously didn’t handle a sloppy track last time and could have a say in the outcome if she can run back to her prior effort.

Race 7: The two main players are clearly Fifty (1) and C K Dexter Haven (5). Of that pair, I strongly prefer Fifty, who was facing a significantly tougher field when he made his debut in mid-January. He was actually involved in the pace of that race for much of the way prior to fading. This seems like a logical drop in class for a horse that has already run fast enough to beat this field. C K Dexter Haven disappointed at a short price last time, but he did have a little trouble out of the gate. On the other hand, he ran his best races for Todd Pletcher and I’m skeptical that he can get back to those efforts.

Race 8: Sounds Delicious (4) is a very likely winner of this race after an unlucky loss in her return effort last month. That day, Junior Alvarado appeared to get tricked into moving inside at the top of the stretch before having to angle out late as the eventual winner mildly herded her. This Linda Rice filly has shown tremendous finishing ability in her races and I doubt she loses here. Short Kakes (1) is a minor backup.

Race 9: There is a real lack of attractive options in this finale. Love Your Buttons (2) and Arthur Avenue (5) are the two horses to beat, but neither one is particularly convincing at a short price. The former was riding a gold rail last time, which aided his overall performance. Arthur Avenue disappointed coming off the layoff, but I suppose he deserves another chance here. You have to use them strongly in a multi-race wager like this, but I want some backup options. Those include Ed’s Quick Cat (6), who is a threat to wire the field, and Brilliant Scheme (9), who has a right to improve in his second start.

The Play

{All A's} for $2
{3 A's with 1 B} for $1
{3 A's with 1 C} for $0.50
{2 A's with 2 B's} for $0.50

Total: $26