Race 1: The opener looks to be pretty straightforward. Strawberry Tequila (3) has had a couple of chances at this level, but I feel that she’s run well in each of those starts. That was especially the case last time when she made a 4-wide move around the far turn, which may have sapped some of her energy late in the race. Satin Sheets (6) only finished a half-length behind the favorite last time out, but she got to save more ground early and worked out a better trip overall. In my opinion, they are the top two. Others have chances, but I feel that they are substantially less likely to win. I need to see Groton St Scout (4) run another fast race after beating cheaper last time and Eighth Commandment (1) is likely to find 6 furlongs to be too short for her.

Race 2: American Road (4) figures to go off favored here off the claim back by Linda Rice, but the drop back down to $10,000 is not a great sign for a horse that returned from a lengthy layoff two back. He ran well in that Jan. 19 race and put in a stronger effort than today’s primary rival Open Bar (2), but his overall form is not terribly inspiring. He’s a horse that has finished second 10 times in 26 starts and has had trouble winning races on more than a few occasions. I think this race could produce a weird result, so I’m taking a shot against the favorites with Motown Sound (6) at a bigger price. I know it appears that this horse has been off form, but he’s had excuses in each of his last two starts. That Jan. 13 race over a muddy track appeared to favor horses that rode the rail and he was racing wide throughout. Then last time, on Feb. 2, the pace was very slow relative to the final time and he never really had a chance to work his way into the race. Prior to that, he had actually run a few races for the current barn that puts him in the mix against this group. I prefer him to some of the other alternatives and the low-profile connections should drive up the price.

Race 3: The two likely favorites are The Cake Is a Lie (6) and Special Risk (7). The former comes off a win going this distance, but that came against a very weak field of N2L claimers and she’s stepping up in class here. Nevertheless, she’s held her form well for Gary Gullo this winter and has to be considered a top threat. Special Risk rebounded from a poor effort two back with a narrow loss going a mile last time. You can make the argument that the rail was the place to be that day, and she was positioned on the inside for the first half of that race. Yet the primary question for her is the distance, since she’s done her best running going farther than today’s six furlongs. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead, which favors The Cake Is a Lie, but also really helps the projected front-runner Town Tart (5) at a better price. After running fine first time back from the layoff in November, this mare has gone in the wrong direction since then, but she’s had excuses in each of those performances. She didn’t want to go a mile two back against tougher company, and then last time she was racing on a dead rail Feb. 21 while most of the other competitors raced out in the center of the track. I don’t fully trust her, but she may offer the best value.

Race 4: With the scratch of Hey Braciole, the horse to beat becomes Flick of an Eye (1). She ran a competitive speed figure two back, but was then off for nearly 4 months following that performance. Her return effort against tougher optional-claiming company came up a slower race, but she actually ran better than it seems that day. That Jan. 26 card featured a strong rail bias, and Flick of an Eye was racing 3- to 4-wide throughout, which seriously hindered her chances. Now she drops back to a more appropriate claiming level, and I think she’s the one to beat. I’ll use her, but the horse that really interests me at a bigger price is Spring for More (2). This filly has been getting trounced by some significantly tougher fields in recent starts, but she’s actually run plenty of speed figures that make her just as fast as some of the shorter prices. Now she’s finally dropping down into a claiming race where she really belongs, and is getting a significant rider upgrade to Manny Franco.

Race 5: My main opinion in this race is that I want to bet against likely favorite Forever Daisy. This filly’s last race is grossly exaggerated by a gold rail. I know that she also ran decently in her prior start against maidens, but she’s going to take money off her last-out speed figure, and I think she’s a bad bet on those grounds. Furthermore, she’s one of a few in this race that is attempting to stretch out in distance for the first time and we really don’t know if any of these sprinting fillies want to go this far. For that reason, I want the two runners that they have proven that they prefer longer distances. Those are Vip Nation (6) and Hug the Rail (5). The former is likely to take more money as she drops out of a tougher spot, in which she was defeated by more talented runners Split Time and Salty Smile. There are no fillies of that quality in this race and she just appears to have landed in a logical spot. Hug the Rail only beat maidens last time out, but she did it in reasonably fast time (at least for this group) and would be dangerous here with a repeat of that effort.

The Play:

{All A's} for $0.50
{3 A's with 1 B} for $0.50
{3 A's with 1 C} for $0.50
{2 A's with 2 B's} for $0.50

Total: $69