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Thumb_hersh Marcus Hersh , Fair Grounds , 03/15/2018 - DRF Live Posted : Mar 15, 2018, 3:54 PM

Fair Grounds: Inside / speed bias might be holding sway on main track

One major problem with trying to analyze potential track biases during the course of a card is the necessity of relying on a small sample. But the problem with waiting for a larger sample is then the races are over. You can benefit retrospectively when horses on the biased card race again, but there also is value in making a small-sample guess at a bias to try and leverage an edge on that card itself.

All a preamble to saying the main track at Fair Grounds seems biased today. Charzee Baby was super logical and favored wiring race 1, but She Loves Leather got to the fence, turned away a pace rival, and won race 2 at odds of 15/1. Similar thing in race 4, where 10/1 That's a Song set a pressured inside pace but opened up a large lead at the eighth pole and hung on to win the first one-turn dirt race on this card. Looking beyond the win odds and at the form of those last two winners, one would be hard pressed to make an especially strong case even knowing the results.

Stay tuned.

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