Race 6: Phantomofthefrost (3) looks like the most reliable option off his decent debut, but one of the first time starters is likely to beat him if they can run at all. The one that I prefer is Ready to Escape (2), who is a half-brother to a pair of talented runners for these same connections. Retonova (1) also has some damside pedigree, but worked a slow drill at the OBS sale back in June. Irish Creed (7) goes out for the capable Pletcher barn, but has more turf pedigree on the dam’s side. Raging Fire (8) is another to consider as a potential backup as he ran fast enough last summer as a juvenile. (Update: Let's also elevate firster Panic Attack (5) to a A, since he is taking significant early money.)

Race 7: Backyard Heaven (3) is clearly the horse to beat as what figures to be a very short price. If he runs back to his last speed figure, which appears to be legitimate, then he’s probably not going to lose. On the other hand, it’s a Pick-4 and you want to use some backups. Eastport (4) is a horse that interests me returning from the layoff. He showed ability early in his career before finding himself on a dead rail at Keeneland before the layoff. He needs to improve, but has a right to do so. Mr. Buff (8) also must be respected for his early speed, since he appears to have a pace advantage.

Race 8: The Correction drew an incredibly deep field of sprinters for a listed stakes in late winter. There is a good amount of speed in this field, and the two runners likely to vie for favoritism both possess running styles that are well suited to the race flow. Startwithsilver (6) looks like the one that will garner the most attention following a pair of eye-catching victories earlier this winter. She made an unbelievable run from out of the clouds to win on Jan. 25 before pulling off a similar feat from closer range in the Broadway last time out. While she beat stakes company that day, this race came up significantly tougher. I respect her, but I think the value will lie elsewhere. Her main rival Quezon (5) has run just as fast and figures to go off at a better price. She doesn’t have to rally from as far back as Startwithsilver and has already proven she belongs at this level. In my opinion, she’s the horse to beat. Yet I’m taking a shot against both of them with Sounds Delicious (3). I know that even her best efforts are a bit slower than the aforementioned two, but she’s been very impressive in her races. She should have won two back in her first start off the layoff after getting mildly herded in the lane. Then last time she utterly dominated an overmatched field while geared down late. She doesn’t need the lead, and is capable of finishing off her races nearly as fast as some of the closers. I’m giving her the nod for the mild upset, but she’s going to need a career best effort.

Race 9: The finale is wide open, but I feel reasonably comfortable pushing Barefoot Angel (1) as the only A. I just feel that’s more likely to win this race than everyone else, given his tactical speed and string of competitive efforts at this level. He’s not one of these maidens that has shown unwillingness to win races. The horse that I’m mildly against is Port Arch (2). He was the beneficiary of a very fast pace last time and will likely be overbet off that effort. I’ll spread with more B and C horses. One longshot that I’m elevating to a B is Clonedsimmard (10), who has subtly improved in recent starts and faced tougher last time.

The Play:

{All As} for $2
{3 As & 1 B} for $1
{3 As & 1 C} for $0.50
{2 As & 2 Bs} for $0.50

Total: $72