1) Bravazo 5-1
2) Noble Indy 6-1
3) Marmello 99-1
4) Givemeaminit 32-1
5) Retirement Fund 16-1
6) Hyndford 16-1
7) Snapper Sinclair 5-1
8) Lone Sailor 9-1
9) My Boy Jack 9/2
10) Dark Templar 12-1
As you can see from my value line, I don't have a strong opinion in this year's Louisiana Derby. BRAVAZO (1) and SNAPPER SINCLAIR (7) ran 1-2 throughout in the Risen Star last month at giant prices, and replicas of those efforts today likely put them right there at the end.
NOBLE INDY (2) is very lightly raced for Todd Pletcher and hasn't taken a step back as far as figs are concerned, but the addition of blinkers for the first time scares me; Pletcher is 1/18 (6 ITM) over the past five years when adding blinkers for the first time on dirt in a graded stakes race.
MY BOY JACK (9) is very logical, coming off an impressive victory in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn. The real knock/concern for this son of Creative Cause - did the gold rail (which he rode) and muddy/sealed track carry him to that victory?
I'm taking a shot with LONE SAILOR (8) for Tom Amoss. Lone Sailor ran very well in a N1X most recently, finishing second to Dark Templar; he was likely compromised by a lack of pace early, yet still finished very well. With some more pace signed on today, he should give a good account of himself. He's not the likeliest of winners, but I'll take a shot with him here.