Race 1: I’m not Christmas Sky’s (5) biggest fan, but she’s probably going to win this race. There’s not that much speed signed on her and her recent speed figures suggest that she’s just faster than this field. I’m slightly interested in Decorator Jenn (1) off the positive claim, but even her best races might not be good enough to beat the favorite.

Race 2: I’m not trying to beat Picture Day (1), who seems to be in great form for Linda Rice and is facing a very weak field. The only other runner that I can use as even a C here is My Won Love (5), but she’s a distant second choice.

Race 3: Just Got Out (4) and Short Kakes (6) will vie for favoritism in this spot, and I strongly prefer the latter. She’s a confirmed sprinter and her last race is not nearly as bad as it seems. The slow early pace hindered her that day, and she was racing on a dead rail for part of it. Just Got Out can win, but this distance is a bit short for her. She would need a strong pace to develop to have her best chance. Angel At War (5) looks like a viable backup, and I will use her as a B. She was beaten by a better field two back and she may not have liked the mud last time.

Race 4: Polar Jet (5) has recorded the fastest speed figures, but now he’s stretching out to a mile after sprinting throughout his entire career. I’m pretty skeptical about this runner’s stamina given his speed-oriented pedigree. He’s kept great company, having faced talented runners like Westwood and Wonderful Light, but I don’t want to bet him as the favorite here trying a new distance for the first time. J S Bach (7) is the logical alternative off his recent win at this level. He’s clearly gotten back to better form for trainer Jason Servis, but this move does represent a big step up in class off his last. I’m using him here, but I prefer Shalako (1) as my top pick. I know that he hasn’t won in quite some time, but his recent form is solid. I thought he ran well two back closing behind Daddy D T, a race in which he soundly defeated J S Bach. Then last time, despite finishing fifth I thought he ran well closing inside of runners late while others were making up ground in the middle of the track. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace with speed likely to come from Danebury, Flowers for Lisa, and Polar Jet.

Race 5: There are plenty of short-priced favorites on this card that I’m not trying to beat. Control Group (2) would be lumped into that group for many players, since his recent speed figures are significantly faster than what his rivals in this race have achieved. Additionally, he appears to once again have a pace advantage since the majority of his challengers are closers. I do think his last performance may be a littler overrated since he was allowed to go so slow in the early going, and runners exiting that race have done that well subsequently. I don’t dispute that he’s the most likely winner, but I think there’s an improving runner with an outside chance to beat him. Halloween Horror (3) has yet to run speed figures that make him fast enough to issue a serious challenge to the favorite, but I do think he’s heading in the right direction. John Terranova is having a terrific winter meet and he’s gotten this horse into the best form of his career. I liked the way he handled this distance last time in a race where he was bottled up behind a slow for much of the running. He didn’t ultimately run much worse than the highly touted Ekhtibaar, who finished in that photo for third along with him. Halloween Horror has the tactical speed to place him in a stalking position and I think he’ll get the jump on plodding closers like Mills and Carlino.

The Play:

{All As} for $2
{3 As & 1 B} for $1
{2 As & 2 Bs} for $0.50
{3 As & 1 C} for $0.50

Total: $35