Felix in Fabula (6) is a deserving favorite based on his most recent effort at this level. He finished well clear of third-place finisher Lutheran Rags and earned a speed figure that makes him faster than all of his competitors. However, the majority of the runners in this field are lightly raced, and things are prone to change from start to start at this time of year. The one knock I have against the favorite is that a mile may be a bit of a stretch for him. He was successful going seven furlongs in Florida, and he appeared to flatten out late going this distance last time after looking like a potential winner at the head of the stretch. I’m hardly against him here, but others do stand to offer better value.

My top pick is Davka (3). This gelding's effort on Feb. 8 suggests that he’s fast enough to contend with these, and I’m willing to throw out his last race. This horse wants no part of sprinting, and he basically put up the white flag after he couldn’t get near the early lead that day. There is not an abundance of early speed in this race, so Davka should fall into a great stalking trip sitting just off likely pacesetter Binkster in the early going. The Mark Casse barn has quietly done very well in New York over the past several months, and this horse figures to go off at a generous price. Furthermore, the Aqueduct main track has been kind to speed through the first two races.

One other contender to consider is the maiden Hot Mesa (7). Linda Rice did not have this colt cranked up for his debut against a weak field last time, but the confidence that Rudy Rodriguez shows by moving him up in class off the claim should not go unnoticed.

THE PLAY

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,6,7