La Piu Bella (4) is going to take money in this race off the basis of her 10-length victory at Gulfstream last time. While it’s uncommon to see horses win turf races by such a large margin, that lopsided victory was primarily due to a dearth of competitive rivals in a very weak maiden claiming affair. She can obviously win here, but I don’t think she deserves to be a shorter price than REGAL DAME (1), who has proven herself against stouter competition on the grass.

In retrospect, Regal Dame's runner-up finish at the Fair Grounds back on Feb. 2 was actually a decent effort. The winner, Roussalka, returned to run a respectable race in a minor stakes thereafter, and the third-place finisher has also run improved races in subsequent starts. While Regal Dame was running in a conditioned claimer, that race came against older horses, and she’s meeting 3-year-olds this time. Furthermore, she had some subtle difficulties last time. Kendrick Carmouche came out of the gate looking for the lead, but he was forced to rate when another runner was sent aggressively inside of her. Regal Dame stalked in the two path thereafter, but was pushed even wider for the run around the far turn when a runner made a premature move up the rail. She lost some momentum when steadied out at the quarter pole, but never stopped running in the lane and was actually coming back on the third-place finisher late. Today, she should work out a great stalking trip, and I think she’s just better than these horses. I’ll use her with the favorite, but I also want to throw in Giant Boxer (7) at a big price. This horse has a bit of turf pedigree, and actually ran much better than it seems after making a premature move in a stakes last time. She’s an interesting new face to throw in underneath.

THE PLAY

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,7
Trifecta: 1,7 with 1,7 with ALL