As the rain continues to come down at Churchill Downs (there is, actually, now a flash flood warning in effect for parts of the Louisville area), of course you've got to be thinking about who could handle a wet track in the Derby. There are both pedigree clues and past performances in play.

There are three in the race by Curlin, who could run on a wet track himself (2007 Breeders' Cup Classic, etc) and who can sire a wet-track horse (look no further than Exaggerator). Looking at Good Magic, Solomini, and Vino Rosso, let's consider that Good Magic could get an extra little boost from his female side. The colt's dam Glinda the Good was beaten in her only start on a sloppy track, but comes from a turf-type female family, being a half to Take the Ribbon and others. Turf and synthetic runners (Barbaro, Animal Kingdom, etc) have a history of running well at Churchill, especially when sloppy (Mine That Bird, Paddy O'Prado., etc).

To that end, I'm not concerned about the four by Scat Daddy - Combatant, Flameaway, Justify, Mendelssohn - on a wet track. This could particularly move up Flameaway, who was an exotics candidate anyway; he won a pair of off-the-turf stakes last year on muddy/sloppy tracks. Justify did win his second start on a muddy track.

Magnum Moon is by Malibu Moon, whose son Orb won the 2013 Kentucky Derby in the slop here.

Firenze Fire won the Jerome and My Boy Jack won the Southwest (over Combatant) on wet tracks, and Lone Sailor broke his maiden by 11 lengths in the slop at Saratoga.