Fast & firm at Belmont today.  There is a pick six carryover in excess of $44k beginning in Race 5.  

Chad Brown holds a strong hand in that 5th race, which is set for 10 furlongs on the inner turf.  

His Course Correction is exiting a solid runner-up finish in his career debut at Keeneland, where he fell just short of running down an experienced stablemate in the stretch; while Azzedine earned an identical 82 Beyer for his recent second-place finish at Aqueduct.  

They are both logical contenders but I am going to try to beat them with Into the Breach, returning from a layoff for Kiaran McLaughlin.  

Into the Breach really improved with the switch to turf and stretch out in distance last summer.  His most recent effort was a particularly good performance as Into the Breach took a bit of a blind-switch at the top of the stretch with the talented Rocketry getting the jump on him, then came with a strong finish of his own to be a clear-cut second-best.  Kiaran does have strong numbers in situations like this, which somewhat allays fears that Into the Beach may need a race:  past five years, 180+ day layoff, turf, route:  11 for 33, 33%, $3.83 ROI - via Formulator, of course).  

Big scratch from Race 7 with ML favorite Shalako coming out.  The race, for $25k claimers routing on turf, remains a competitive affair with several horses capable of getting there first under the right circumstances.  

I am going to try to wake up King of New York, switching back to turf for his second start out of David Donk's barn.  

He has the back races to contend with these horses if coming forward with the switch back to turf.  

Scratch Holiday Disguise from the Grade 2 Ruffian, which goes as Race 8 and features the return of last year's Mother Goose winner Unchained Melody.  

She's a handful here if ready off the bench, but it's not as though she doesn't still have much to prove.  Her races leading up to the Mother Goose last year were certainly good, and while she earned an impressive 100 Beyer winning that Grade 2 event, she did get completely loose on the lead that day.  

I liked that win from Pacific Wind in her first start for Chad Brown at Keeneland and will take her to pull off a mild upset, though you usually have to take the worst of it playing horses out of this barn.

The 9th likely comes down to Secretary of War (deserving favorite dropping in class) or, perhaps, Snap Decision (new 4yo second off the layoff for Shug), though I can't say I'm a particular fan of either of them.  

I'm using the former - not the latter - and am going to try to get Weekend Express in there somewhere at a price. He starts from a tough outside post, but he has enough speed to overcome it and he is capable of a race that would give him a chance in here.  He has also run his race in NY in the past, which is something worth pointing out. 

Tough way to end the Pick 6 with a scramble for NY-bred maiden claimers sprinting on the turf in race 10. 

I scratched into Celtic Serenade, which I am fine with since I prefer her sprinting on turf, something she will do today for this first time since October of 2016. 

Of the others, Headfirst seems like a must use dropping off the layoff after showing improved speed in her 2017 finale; Mighty Marin is the kind of firster to keep an open mind about in a field like this, even though her trainer doesn't have a lot of success on debut; Galway Gal isn't very good, but she has one race at this level from last October that would make her very tough in here at a big price; Burkey's Babe makes her first start for a tag on turf, and she has more speed than she managed to show in her only other start on grass; and Stormy Rita, who hasn't shown much ability through five starts, switches to turf with a pedigree that suggests she could improve.