Short first week of the meet ends on a rainy Monday with a pick six carryover of $69,580 beginning with race 4.  We are off the turf for all but the $200k Caress for filly and mare sprinters, at least for now. 

There are many scratches already (they will be posted here) and with more rain expected the Caress is not a given to stay on the turf.

After scratches, the two MTOs look like the right ones in the first leg of the pick six.  Both Bourbon Mission and Woodbury have some pedigree for top trainers and this is an opportunistic situation for them if nothing else. Dugout is from a dam whose best foals have all been best on synthetic, but he debuts for a trainer adept at getting his 2yos to perform first out in sprints. 

In race 5 I'll go with Ekhtibaar staying on dirt for Chad Brown. His recent form is fine and he won over a sloppy track two starts back at Monmouth. The MTOs I want are Tapsolute and Cherry Wine, whose two best races have come in the slop. 

Race 6 changed greatly after scratches.  Bluegrasscat's Smile becomes the one to beat for Charlie Baker after the scratch of his stablemate Danebury (who was hard to trust anyway). I prefer him around two-turns and he's okay on a wet track, but I don't love him. I'll also use Calculated Risker, who really improved two back off the claim over this distance. Maybe that was a fluke, but I'm winning to give him another chance. Stretch's Stone can go long and also likes a wet track. He can impact if he can get back to his best races. 

Race 7 is the Caress. It is a very good race if it stays on turf. Fire Key lands in a tough spot here but she needed that first start back from the layoff and she overachieved last year. I'm using her at a price. Triple Chelsea, Lull, and Chanteline are the others for me. 

In race 8 I'll go with Sanavi up in class off the claim for Linda Rice. He was taken by Phil D'Amato out of his most recent start before being sent to NY, and he is a prior winner over a wet track at this distance at Saratoga. I'm going to try to find a way to use Make the Rules, stretching out off the claim for Mike Maker, as he has run well in both starts to date. If he can get the distance he may be able to go with these horses. Harangue is in a better spot here after getting in too tough last time, and he can get forward this time after getting outrun by a solid pace in that last start. 

The finale was crushed by scratches. Missbigtimes seems like a must use vs. what is left, though there are questions as to whether she can still run. The MTO Icy Maneuvers appears to be training strongly into her debut and may have fallen into a perfect spot to make her first start.