Closing down the first full week with a 10-race card and a carryover in the pick six of nearly $60k.
The first is a steeplechase and I can't help you. It is a Grade 1, however.
Race 2 is for cheaper claimers sprinting on dirt and I wanted to try Estruchan at a fair price. He hasn't been concentrating on sprints lately, but he was effective going shorter early in his career while facing much better horses and his underrated trainer has sent out some pretty live horses up here over the past couple of meets without winning. It only helps when Nominal Dollars figures to be a short price, not that he can't win.
In race 3 I like Hangman turning back for Linda Rice at anything like his ML odds. This may be a bit short for him but he's okay with forward to go and has a chance to simply turn out to be better than these horses.
Race 5 kicks off the pick six. If I play I will likely lean on Backtohistroots for Joe Sharp. He ran well in his debut while chasing an odds-on favorite all the way and finishing well clear of the rest.
Race 6: Course Correction likely rates another chance here for Chad Brown. He had no real excuse in his last start after getting to a short lead in midstetch, but he may have been facing a better field that day in a strongly-run race. His debut over soft turf at Keeneland was also solid.
Prompt can win for Bill Mott but his last two races aren't as good as they look, in my opinion. I'd like to try to get High Promise in there somewhere at a better price.
Race 7: The Coronation Cup for 3yo filly sprinters on turf has drawn a very good field and I'm betting Tesora second off the layoff for Jonathan Thomas. She didn't fire off the layoff going long in a stakes race at Delaware, but she was very impressive in her two starts as a 2yo and she can sprint.
Race 9: I prefer Classic Covey and Focus Group to ML favorite to Soglio in this three-turn route on turf. Soglio has the advantage of tactical speed to go along with his improved form recently, but he has been a disappointment overall after a promising start to his career. Maybe he has just finally put it all together, but Classic Covey and Focus Group were both compromised by dynamics in their recent starts and they both have upside.