There are a number of horses to consider in this tricky starter allowance event. The two horses drawn closest to the rail figure to take some money. Herecomesyourman (2) always runs well, but it’s so hard to get him in the winner’s circle since his late move is difficult to time correctly. Sentry (5) put in a solid late run going this distance last time out at Belmont, finishing second to a talented horse in Carrick. He’s clearly hitting his best stride for Shug McGaughey, so I think he’s one you need to respect.

There isn’t much early speed in this race, and I think that makes HONEY DONT (4) particularly dangerous. This horse has shown good tactical speed in his races and should be either setting the pace or sitting just off longshot Knockholt early. He obviously needed a start off the layoff when he returned in June, and he looked like a completely different horse when he returned to win just 13 days later. That day, he easily fended off a late challenge from Sport, who himself was coming off a layoff. Sport’s subsequent win flatters the form of Honey Dont’s race, and Bill Mott has very good numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 21 for 89 (24 percent, $2.92 ROI) with last-out maiden winners in turf routes.