Fast & firm for the Saturday card at Saratoga, but with more rain moving through the area this morning let's take the listed course condition with a little grain of salt.

Two graded stakes on the card: the Grade 2 Adirondack, for 2yos over 6.5 furlongs, and the Grade 1 Fourstardave, over a mile on the inner turf.

The Adirondack (Race 3) goes through Steve Asmussen's Lyrical Lady, an impressive debut winner up here on opening day. Asmussen does not have great numbers with horses like this, but if Lyrical Lady run as well this afternoon as she did first time out, where she went a fast pace to burn off the other speeds and just kept going in the stretch, she is going to be hard to beat. 

Pletcher's Virginia Eloise seems the likeliest upsetter (it would be a minor one) after her professional debut win at Belmont where she came through on the rail before going clear. 

In the Fourstardave, Yoshida is not the favorite but he does appear to be the horse to beat. His return from the layoff on Derby Day looked like a breakthrough performance in his 4yo debut, and he backed that race up well when shipped to Ascot to try a tough straightaway mile vs. Group 1 horses. The cut in the ground only helps his chances.

Heart to Heart is the ML favorite, which makes sense considering that he is a dual Grade 1-winner this year, but he is a speed with some likely pressure coming from Voodoo Song and he has never been quite at his best when unable to control. 

Race 5: I like The J Y in this race. He has come back in good form this year while showing a willingness to rate, and he does have enough natural speed to get a forward position from his outside draw. He was an impressive winner two back while closing down a loose leader once getting clear of traffic, and he got out-moved a bit last time on the turn, which left him playing catch-up. 

Race 7: This turf sprint for older fillies and mares in open to several different horses. I'm trying La Naturel, who has been in good form over a series of races since arriving in NY. She was up against a difficult pace scenario last time but did well to get close at the end, and he low-profile connections will keep her price fair. 

Race 10 is the $100k Lure, rescheduled from last Saturday. It has picked up a major contender in the form of Projected for leading trainer Chad Brown. While he can definitely win, I'm going to see if Zennor can defend his Lure title while making his first start since winning this race last summer. The layoff os an obvious drawback, but this horse was in excellent form when last seen, has fired fresh in the past, and has a versatile running style which allows him to get any trip in a race and still fire his best shot. 

I will also use Inspector Lynley, who was badly compromised by pace and trip last time at Churchill, though that has been the story of his life. for the most part. 

Race 11: With no one to really fall for in this race, I want to bet Molly's Nighthawk. She could only manage 5th when dropped to this level last time, but that was her first start of the layoff and she was shuffled back to last through the turn, before making up some ground in the stretch. She wouldn't seem to have to do much better than that in this spot if she can get a clean trip.