Frisky Magician (6) is obviously the most accomplished horse in this race, and he will win if he’s allowed to put forth his optimal performance. However, all of that was also true last time, and he still fell a nose shy of victory. Any of the tactical speed that this horse once possessed appears to be gone, so Jose Ortiz will likely ride him as a deep closer once again. While he is the most likely winner, I think it’s dangerous to rely too heavily on horses with his running style, given all of the variables at play for closers in turf sprints. Banana Thief defeated him last time, but I would prefer Frisky Magician on this occasion. Banana Thief (9) was able to make a clear late run outside last time whereas Frisky Magician had to squeeze through inside. That said, I want to focus on some options with more tactical speed.

Polar Axis (2) is a horse that you need to use. He’s very fast in the early going and figures to clear off from this field unless someone else is dead-set on making the front. He’s stepped up to face tougher open allowance company recently, but now he’s dropping back to a level at which he’s been successful in the past. This distance is perfect for him. I’m definitely using him, but I prefer the runner just to his inside.

COLONEL TOM (1) needs another aggressive ride from Dylan Davis, who did a good job of sending this horse to the lead from a rail post position last time. While he got the 7 furlongs that day, he was getting a bit tired at the end, so I don’t mind this cutback to a shorter trip. This colt showed a ton of potential when he broke his maiden last November and I feel that he’s slowly been working his way back into top form since then. His last win was a step in the right direction and I wouldn’t be surprised to see another improved effort here.