A couple of contenders in this spot are exiting the fifth race on July 11. Congruity (1) won that race, but he was the beneficiary of favorable circumstances. There was absolutely no pace competition for him, and he was able to amble along on the front end through pedestrian fractions. Predictably, no one could pass him in the lane given that early advantage. This time, he figures to get some company up front from Meilleur (3). I prefer the other runner out of that race.

SPECTACULAR PLUM (2) was an interesting contender going into that July 11 spot, as he had run deceptively well in his recent starts at Monmouth. He was badly pace-compromised on May 26 in a race dominated on the front end, and then he was hindered by a very wide trip on June 16. Both of those starts came against older rivals, and I thought he put forth a very encouraging effort when placed back with straight 3-year-olds two back, despite a less-than-ideal setup. Not only was Spectacular Plum thwarted by the dynamics of that race, but I also thought he spent too much time losing position racing down on the rail. John Velazquez could never seem to get him into a position where he could build momentum, ultimately finding himself last on the rail at the top of the stretch. Considering that disadvantage, I thought Spectacular Plum rallied valiantly up the inside in the final eighth of a mile to nearly get up for second. I don’t care about the dirt race last time, and he draws a good inside post position for this race.