There is very little reliable form to analyze in this race, so the best I can do is try to point out horses that I think will offer some value. There are a pair of first time starters in this field, and I think you have to take both of them seriously. Obviously, Tropical Storm Em (2) has the better credentials, as she is a daughter of Scat Daddy going out for top debut trainer Todd Pletcher. On the other hand, her pedigree is not exactly geared towards stamina and Pletcher is in the midst of a poor run with his 2-year-olds. I’m using her, but I’m pretty wary of accepting a short price. Girl of Tosconova (5) is a full-sister to a decent route winner and Rudy Rodriguez can also have one ready. I’m including these two, but I’m more interested in some of those with experience.

One horse that I want to use prominently is Quietude (3). It’s probably not a good sign that she’s dropping in for a tag so early despite having sold for 6 figures as a yearling. On the other hand, she may have needed her debut and it’s not surprising that she didn’t handle turf last time since she’s not really bred for it. Added distance figures to help her, if she can run at all.

The horse that I want to bet is DEVIL'S FLAIR (8). She made her debut on turf and didn’t show much, but I thought her dirt effort last time was better than it might appear. She was actually up close soon after the start but got shuffled back as horses jostled for position down the backstretch. Joe Bravo ended up taking her in hand behind a wall of runners and angled her to the far outside. Sep. 14 was a day when you wanted to be on the rail and indeed that 6th race was dominated by horses that stayed inside. I actually thought Devil’s Flair ran well within the context of the race to nearly get up for third despite that terrible trip. The stretch-out is a concern, but it’s an unknown for all of these and at least she figures to be a square price.

THE PLAY

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,3,5,7