In the Saturday edition of Daily Racing Form, I analyzed the All-Turf Pick 4 offered between Keeneland and Woodbine, a sequence that encompasses three Grade 1 races and one allowance. Here it is on DRF Live– though with some adjustment due to the scratch of Daddy Is a Legend from the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup, the first leg of the sequence that is set for a 5:30 ET post.
Queen Elizabeth II
Any discussion of this race naturally must begin with Rushing Fall (8), who becomes a single in the Pick 4 after the Daddy Is a Legend scratch. The winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf last fall, along with three others stakes, Rushing Fall brings a 2-for-2 record on the Keeneland course into the QE II and appears to be at a tactical advantage in a race short of early speed.
Drawn in post 8 with a long run to the first of two turns, Rushing Fall, under regular jockey Javier Castellano, figures to either dictate terms or be laying in a favorable outside pressing position in what shapes up as a slow-paced race. She used a pressing style to win her most recent race, the Grade 2 Lake Placid at Saratoga on Aug. 18.
Canadian International
The European invader Thundering Blue (2) finds an attractive spot to make his North American debut, and the Woodbine course has a long stretch that looks tailor made for his late-running style.
Although he is coming off a victory in a modest Group 3 in Sweden, his class should not be underestimated. In finishing third two starts ago in the Juddmonte International, he raced with Europe’s elite, running behind Roaring Lion and Poet’s Word in a race in which every one of his seven rivals was already a Group 1 winner.
If he does not fire off the plane, the uncoupled Chad Brown-trained pair of Focus Group (11) and Funtastic (4) are the ones I view most positively. Both are proven stayers, with Focus Group being an up-and-comer and Funtastic already having notched a Grade 1 win this year in the United Nations.
Keeneland Race 10
This seems like a race to spread a bit, focusing on fillies who can rate, at least somewhat, in what seems like a speed-laden race for 1 1/16 miles on turf. Vagabond Princess (8) and You Cheated (6) are the two I prefer in the body of the race, though not by much. Dynatail (3) and Smart Emma (10) also are in the mix, having run well at times from off the pace, though recently they have been front-runners.
E.P. Taylor
Elysea’s World (8), a frequent bridesmaid last year, has turned the corner in 2018 by winning three Grade 3 races, often in quick time. She looks ready for the jump to the Grade 1 level, as well as for the stretch-out to 1 1/4 miles.
If she holds an advantage, it is not by much. Stablemate Santa Monica (2) is already a course and distance winner, conditions under which she ran a 100 Beyer Speed Figure in June, and the French raider Golden Legend (5) boasts the highest last-race Timeform ratings of the shippers from overseas. All three merit play.
The ticket
A 50-cent pick-four play of 8 with 2, 4, 11 with 3, 6, 8, 10 with 2, 5, 8 costs $18.