The main track favored speed on Saturday, but Southern California biases tend to be short-lived. Expect a “normal” track on Sunday, and prepare to adjust. Preview …
Race 1 – Five-horse fields rarely offer value. Lone speed Katherine (3) might be lone gone as the favorite in this allowance turf mile for 3-year-old fillies. Want to back a horse at low odds trying something new? Or course not. Katherine has never run long.
Race 2 – Just Hit Play (2) will be tough in this maiden-30 sprint for 2-year-olds. Runner-up two straight, he is listed at 8-5. Expect that price to drop.
Race 3 – Speed is powerful in dirt miles. Who makes the lead in this maiden-50 for fillies and mares. It might be Sensible Thoughts (2), second-longest shot in the field at 3-1. Her price highlights the problem betting a race with five runners. No value, most of the time. This handicapper prefers Tequila Sunrise (5), at a whopping 5-2.
Race 4 – Rolling Shadow (7) is the choice in this turf sprint for Cal-bred fillies and mares. However, her closing style is against the course profile – 14 of 17 downhill races this meet were won by a horse positioned one-two after the opening quarter-mile. Emmy and I (2) and Chasin Lucas (9) benefit from the speed-friendly profile. This race looks like a trap. Not sure if program favorite Batiquitos (3) is good enough, not sure that she is not.
Race 5 – A five-horse field of maiden 2-year-olds go one mile; odds-on Street Class (1) will be tough based on his recent runner-up finish. He adds blinkers, so does main rival Magnificent McCool (3). Street Class and Magnificent McCool exit a race won by Dueling, expected to pre-enter the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
Race 6 – Worthy Turk (7) is okay at 3-1 in this downhill starter allowance, assuming stablemate Wild Wild Kingdom (6) keeps the pace honest. Snazzy Dresser (2) set fast fractions last time at a mile, he benefits by the cutback. The field includes a 20-1 shot with a chance: Heartfullofstars (4) has run well on the hill. Worth fiddling with at a big number.
Race 7 – Seven Scents (1) from off the pace, or Savagery (5) setting the pace? Flip a coin. Juveniles go six and a half in the $75,000 Sunny Slope Stakes. This handicapper will not endorse, or knock, recently gelded Sparky Ville (3). He is merely third preference.
Race 8 – Inland Empire (6) should improve adding blinkers first start off the claim by Rafael Becerra. The filly is 4-1, which is an okay price in a messy restricted $12.5k claiming route. Atrevida (8) stretches out and could set the pace. Eight of the last 14 dirt miles were won by the pacesetter.
Race 9 – Pitino (10) is legit chalk in this maiden downhill sprint; 12-1 Paladar (3) worked super since his comeback according to National Turf workout analyst Andy Harrington.
Sunday first post, 12:30.