The wait is over...Breeders' Cup is back at Churchill Downs, returning beneath the Twin Spires for the first time since 2011, starting with the fifth race, the inaugural running of the Juvenile Turf Sprint.
After raining buckets for the past two days, we're looking at a drying-out main track, officially called muddy this morning. But I fully expect it will be fast at some point today, likely early in the card. As for the turf, it's soft - with the official designation likely to be yielding.
This makes for some tricky turf handicapping since we're dealing with juveniles today on "Future Stars Friday." Obviously, young horses are going to have fewer running lines, and therefore, not as much established wet-course form.
Anyway, without further ado - here on the scratches as reported earlier by Marty McGee this morning. Included on Saturday's early scratches, as well.
FRIDAY: R2-(1); R5-(7, 14, 15, 16); R6-(15, 16); R8-(15, 16); R9-(11).
SATURDAY: R1-(3, 4); R2-(1); R3-(15); R4-(15); R5-(5); R8-(4, 9) (both AEs run); R11-(15, 16).
First post of 12:55 ET with the start of the Breeders' Cup races getting going at 3:21.
Now let's take a dive into the card, looking at some selected races:
Race Four: The Street Sense.
Trainer Bob Baffert seems to win undercard stakes with almost as much frequency as he wins 2-year-old maiden races in California, and he's represented here with IMPROBABLE. A colt running for the same ownership group that had Justify, he appears to be a talented runner, one that won at first asking out West for Baffert. He'll be a skimpy price, however. There is no chance he starts at his 5-2 morning line; expect 8-5 or lower.
DISTANT SHORE seems the live longshot of the race at his 10-1 morning line.
Race Five: The Juvenile Turf Sprint
The wet condition of the turf course gives the Euros an advantage...or it would appear so. My top three picks are all from across the pond: SERGEI PROKOFIEV, SOLDIER'S CALL, and SO PERFECT. Ultimately went with SERGEI PROKOFIEV due to him having been a runaway winner of his only start on soft turf in Ireland back in April.
Race Six: The Juvenile Fillies Turf
Proven already on yielding ground, American NEWSPAPEROFRECORD seems a valid favorite. In addition to leaving her opposition far behind in two starts, she has history on her side in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Her trainer, Chad Brown, has won this race four times since 2008, thrice with fillies that won the Miss Grillo, the same race NEWSPAPEROFRECORD exits.
Race Seven: The Juvenile Fillies
A great race. Four or five really nice ones in this lineup.
I'm bullish on the chances of RESTLESS RIDER. As sharp as she has been in her last couple races - running second in the Spinaway and then winning the Alcibiades - arguably her best race was still her Debutante here. That day she rolled by 11 1/2 lengths, even after being checked behind an injured horse that was being abruptly pulled up....hoping this points to a leap forward with the return to Churchill in the Juvenile Fillies.
Race Eight, The Juvenile Turf
Europeans again look tough in this race - though the best of the Euros on form, ANTHONY VAN DYCK, drew terribly in post 14.
That led me to go with LINE OF DUTY as an alternative. He surged to win the Group 3 Prix de Conde in a sharp performance Oct. 1 at Chantilly, finding daylight in midstretch after being blocked in traffic. He acts like a developing type for Godolphin, though he has yet to be tested against anything of this quality. He also handled "good to soft" ground in winning at Chantilly.
Race Nine, The Juvenile
The day's main event, this race unfortunately lost CODE OF HONOR, who was scratched.
No doubt, GAME WINNER is the one to beat. He brings much into the race: style, talent, connections, you name it. Just not much value.
So I alternatively went with COMPLEXITY, who is two for two, having won a maiden race and the Champagne. Coming out of one-turn races in New York in which he led throughout, he has yet to prove the ability to rate or to go two turns, but his trainer, Chad Brown, seems confident in to do those things. He will likely double the price of favored GAME WINNER.
The card then ends with the 10th race, the Marathon, where ROCKETRY looks imposing.
Best of luck to all with their wagers! Follow along with us on live.drf.com for updates throughout the day.