There are three major contenders in this maiden field. The two likely to attract the most support in the wagering are Abraxan and Evan’s Nice Now. I slightly prefer Abraxan (6), who ran a very encouraging race in her debut last month. While it was an off-the-turf event, that was a fairly strong such race, as a few key Main Track Only entrants scratched in and many horses stayed in the main body of the field. We saw the winner, Kept True, return to run very well in a stakes next time out, and Abraxan gamely battled that rival down to the wire after contesting quick early fractions. I trust her more than Evan’s Nice Now (1), who faced a solid field in her debut at Saratoga, and ran a similar speed figure to Abraxan in finishing fourth. However, she was curiously switched to turf last time out, and I didn’t like the way she threw in the towel in the final eighth of a mile in both of those starts.

I’m taking a small shot against this pair with Dearly Declared (4). I was interested in this filly prior to her debut, and she just didn’t show up. However, you can use the sloppy track as a significant excuse, especially considering her trip. She was taken back off the pace in the early stages and had mud slung in her face for the first four furlongs. She tired in the stretch, but her margin of defeat was exaggerated by track condition and the overall strength of that field. I think she’s now dropping into an easier spot, and I think she’ll give a much better account of herself if she runs to her training. She’s bred to be a nice filly as a half-sister to the popular New York-bred stakes winner Saratoga Snacks.

THE PLAY

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,6