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Thumb_brad-free Brad Free , Del Mar , 11/10/2018 , Race 1 - DRF Live Posted : Nov 10, 2018, 11:07 AM

Del Mar Saturday preview

First, an opening-day recap: speed won all four sprints Friday, the turf played fair, and stewards made the right call disqualifying Excellent Sunset for interference in race 7. Saturday preview …

Race 1 – Bahamian (6) stands out in this maiden turf sprint, first start off the claim by Vladimir Cerin. Bahamian, the favorite, is an eight-start maiden. But his form is sharp, he is quick, and his figures are fine for the level. Still don’t buy it? A longshot option at 8-1 is first-time gelding Shanghai Billy (2), working exceptionally well for his comeback and possibly the speed of the field.

Race 3 – With two sprints under his belt, Don’tbeboisterous (2) is ready to stretch out and win this turf mile for Cal-bred maiden 2-year-old fillies. However, 5-2 is no bargain. Curious stat on trainer Mike Machowsky: 0-for-10 with maiden favorites on turf the past five years, 37-for-85 (43 percent) with favorites all other categories combined.

Race 4 – Claimed from a win for $20k, off two months, dropping to $16k first start back. Not a great pattern for Stringent (3), though his works suggests he will fire. If so, it will be difficult for this handicapper’s top choice Fire to the Wire (2). Still prefer the latter.

Race 5 – Finally, a potential overlay. Mercy Mercy (6) ran super last out, fourth after a slow start and severe trouble in the lane. She may only need a clean trip to win this turf mile for maiden 2yo fillies. Her 7-2 odds could hold, because her speed figures are lower than program favorite My Sweet Baboo (1) and Colonial Creed (9). Mercy Mercy is one of the best plays of the day.

Race 7 – Close call between Afleet Ascent (1) and favorite Prince Earl (2) in this turf mile stakes for 3yos. Stakes-placed-distance-challenged Afleet Ascent should get a great trip sitting second behind Calexman (7); the connections of 2-for-2 Prince Earl (2) already are talking about the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby next month. However, this is more than two-horse race. Risky Proposition (4), Extrordinary Jerry (5) and Fight On (6) all pack big late kicks. Bottom line: “spread.”

Race 9 – Encanta (9) has two sprints under her belt, third and second by a nose, and is a legit favorite in this turf mile for 2yo maiden fillies. This race is a split of race 5. Tapwater (10) is working very well for her first start since a promising runner-up finish in July behind subsequent stakes winner Mother Mother.

First post Saturday, 12:30.

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