Off the turf again for Aqueduct's eight-race card. First post is 12:50. There is a pick six carryover of $23k+ beginning in race 3. The main track is listed as 'good' and is harrowed to start the day.
Race 3 was going to be interesting on turf because it was to feature the debut of Demarchelier for Chad Brown. Off the turf, it is interesting because the likely favorite is going to be Greyes Creek, also for Chad, who just isn't that good.
The other experienced horses in the field, Vineyard Sound and even Stilts (chased wide over a good rail track) fit well on the main track, and the firsters Art Object (full to Danzing Candy) and Eagle Two (half to Lone Sailor from a strong dirt family) are interesting.
Race 5: I'm sticking with Curiousncuriouser dropping back down after trying tougher while in improved form and racing wide over a track that featured a strong rail last time. The other horse for me is Clairvoyant Lady. She was bad last time when blowing a clear lead but goes off the Jeremiah Englehart reclaim.
Race 6 is a very good race featuring a well-matched field of routers on dirt. I know Mr. Buff can win but I don't trust him going this far. I went with Sargeant Drive, who has improved noticeably in his last two starts on dirt for Shug. Most recently he was forced to go around wide to the stretch as the 1-2 finishers both slipped up the rail. I'm not against Point to Remember, who has also improved on the stretch out recently and was three-wide over a track featuring a strong rail last time.
Race 7 is tricky off the turf. There is plenty of speed left on the main track, which helps Benevolence, who rallied to close down a fast pace over a sloppy track last time. I would make him my pick now that we're off the turf, but think Tribecca and Five Star Bunt are logical and would use them both.
Race 8 is a bad field of maidens where I could only put my faith in the Rudy trainer stat with Stay Good: past five years, maidens off the claim, dirt 15 for his last 29, 52%, $5.07 ROI. The 6 and the 7 seem like the only other ones you can make any kind of case for.