At first glance, Spring Drama (4) just appears to be too fast for this group. The 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned in her dirt debut last time towers over the numbers that most of her main rivals are capable of attaining. Yet now she faces a new challenge as she turns back to a sprint distance on the main track. She was able to secure the early lead going a mile last time, but that is unlikely to happen here with some other speed signed on. Furthermore, she has shown a propensity to break slowly in her past turf starts, and such an error could be quite detrimental to her chances in a dirt race. I’m using her prominently, but I think this is a favorite that we can try to beat. I’m not enamored with either half of the entry, and 12-race Anne’s Song is tough to take even though she is in the best form of her career.

Therefore, I want to take a shot with IT'S MY CATIECAT (6) off the layoff. I usually shy away from horses that are returning from such significant breaks, but I think this filly is landing in a relatively soft spot. While she never seriously threatened to win any of her prior starts, she faced significantly tougher fields in all of those races. Miss Hot Stones was a precocious 2-year-old in late 2017 and Split Time went on to be competitive against stakes company soon after her maiden victory. I don’t mind the turnback to 6 furlongs for his filly and Tom Albertrani is capable of having horses ready off lengthy layoffs. The 48-flat workout on Dec. 31 stands out for a barn that is not known for pushing its horses in the morning. At a slightly bigger price, I would also use second-time starter Joule in my wagers. She blew the start last time but was running on well in the stretch, and is preferable to Anne's Song exiting that race.

THE PLAY

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,4,8