Despite attracting just five participants, this race is a pretty difficult handicapping puzzle. While all of the runners merit consideration, I’m somewhat skeptical of the likely favorite, Ma Meatloaf (2). She is the most experienced entrant, has kept the strongest company, and has run the fastest speed figures. However, the stretch-out to a mile is of great concern. She’s done her best work at shorter distances, and her lone attempt at seven furlongs – albeit against stakes company – did not help to allay my concerns. You have to use her defensively, but I’m somewhat against her at a short price.

I actually prefer Jeremiah Englehart’s other entrant, DIRTY BIRD (1). This filly’s first couple of starts at six furlongs came up very slow on the speed-figure scale, but I think she had some excuses. She was facing a stakes-quality runner when she debuted behind Forgotten Hero in early November, and then she had a rough trip when first dropped in for a tag later that month. Some may write off her easy maiden win as a product of the sloppy track, but I thought she ran legitimately well that day, making an early move to the lead and winning with authority over a large field. She finished last against optional-claiming company in her next start, but that effort actually served to validate her maiden win since she was able to keep in touch with classier fillies and earned the best speed figure of her career. I’m not all that concerned about the distance for her, which is more than I can say about the other runners in this race. I also think it’s important to note that Jeremiah Englehart has outstanding numbers in this situation. Over the past 5 years, he is 32 for 57 (56 percent, $2.96 ROI) with horses dropping in claiming price by 50 percent or more and running back in less than 30 days on the dirt. Dirty Bird is my selection, but I could also include fillies like Saratoga Style, who was against the rail bias last time, and Bee’snbee’s, who may be improving at the right time.

THE PLAY

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,5
Trifecta: 1 with 4,5 with ALL