This is a potentially ominous sign for Improbable fans, and I am an Improbable fan.

Jose Ortiz, who will ride Improbable for the first time in the upcoming Arkansas Derby, already had to work some magic on Improbable since they break from the one hole, and the inside today on Oaklawn's sloppy main track has been profoundly dead.

However, it appears that Ortiz might not even be cognizant of the obvious track bias. He just rode Tiz McNamara in Oaklawn's 10th race, the race before the Arkansas Derby. They were loose on the lead, and thus had any pick of the track they wanted. But after being away from the dead rail in the early stages, Ortiz and Tiz McNamara drifted toward the dead rail late on the far turn.

As a result, they were promptly swallowed by Gray Sky. Gray Sky, mind you, is a horse who with two victories from 44 career starts but 23 seconds and thirds, just does not want to win. But Gray Sky was away from the rail and Tiz McNamara was not, and that made all the difference.