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Thumb_mb_headshot Matt Bernier , Pimlico Race Course , 05/18/2019 , Race 13 - DRF Live Posted : May 18, 2019, 6:18 PM

Thoughts, Value Line for Preakness Stakes

1) War of Will 7/2
2) Bourbon War 6-1
3) Warrior's Charge 19-1
4) Improbable 7/2
5) Owendale 9-1
6) Market King 99-1
7) Alwaysmining 16-1
8) Signalman 99-1
9) Bodexpress 49-1
10) Everfast 99-1
11) Laughing Fox 32-1
12) Anothertwistafate 12-1
13) Win Win Win 19-1

- If you listened to or watched my preview pod earlier this week (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8Fv_W-PO58&t=55s), you'll notice that this value line doesn't match up with my prior one; there are a few reasons why this is:
--- The lack of money on WAR OF WILL (1) has me spooked, whether that's the "correct" or "incorrect" way to look at it or not; I backed him out from 5/2 to 7/2 (still very playable)
--- Enough people I respect have brought up how much they think of OWENDALE (5)...enough for me to bring him down to 9-1 from my original line of 13-1
--- Other horses that have been tweaked slightly since Thursday's pod are ALWAYSMINING (7) (from 19-1 to 16-1) and ANOTHERTWISTAFATE (12) (from 13-1 to 12-1)

 

- Generally when there's a horse I like and I make them a short price on my value line, the post-time odds more or less end up in the ballpark; from prior experiences, when my price is vastly shorter than what the public is suggesting, it usually means I've overrated/overestimated a horse's true chances of winning. Accordingly, I feel like it's necessary to make an adjustment, however slight it may be.

 

- I've had War of Will pegged for this race for nearly four weeks, so I'm not going to jump off now. I don't think he got anything out of the Louisiana Derby when the ground broke from beneath him, so, in my opinion, he was running in the Kentucky Derby off a nearly three month layoff; I expect him to move forward this afternoon for trainer Mark Casse. My adjustment from 5/2 to 7/2 isn't enough to dissuade me from betting him at his current odds of 6-1 (38 MTP). I like War of Will to win the 2019 Preakness.

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