A 2-year-old Uncle Mo filly making her career debut will be tough tob beat Saturday at Santa Anita. Donna Veloce (5) is favored to win race 4, after which three graded stakes with Breeders’ Cup ramifications will be run. Opinionated stakes preview …

Race 7 – This handicapper plans to bet against United (5), favored to win the Grade 2 John Henry Turf Championship. He can win of course, but 3-1 is an underlay. The N2X win by United last out was not as impressive as it looks on paper, he skipped a Grade 2 in August when he got sick. Furthermore, United finished behind Marckie’s Water two starts back in a G2. Marckie’s Water was subsequently exposed.

Potential loose-on-the-lead Acclimate (8) is solid at 7-2, while this handicapper’s top choice is a sharp Cal-bred racing beyond 8.5 furlongs for the first time. Grecian Fire (6) improved significantly for new trainer Keith Desormeaux this summer at Del Mar, and if he brings his seaside form back to Santa Anita, and if he can handle 10 furlongs, he can spring an “upset” at 4-1. As for the trifecta, 12-1 Ya Gotta Wanna (1) probably cannot win, but he is coming up to a big effort second start back.

One wagering idea is to key Grecian Fire in the exacta/trifecta, and insist longshot Ya Gotta Wanna hits the board.

Race 9 – It was a mistake by this handicapper to state in the Daily Racing Form analysis that Excellent Sunset (5) could be, or would be, loose on the lead in the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive. That probably cannot happen with pace rival Mirth (1) also entered. But it’s a mile and one-quarter turf race, and the pace should be slow, so at least the theory for supporting Excellent Sunset is valid. Just not "loose on the lead."

Having acknowledged the mistake, let’s be clear – Paved (6) is the horse to beat as 5-2 second choice. She prefers the Santa Anita turf course over Del Mar, she is making the third start of her form cycle, and she finished second in this race one year ago. Paved is a fresh 4-year-old filly and most likely winner.

What to do with favorite Beau Recall (2)? She could have stayed home and run next Saturday at Keeneland in the Grade 1 First Lady at one mile. Beau Recall is suspect at the mile and one-quarter Rodeo Drive distance. She did not hit the board in three previous starts at the trip. But she is a different (better) mare this season for trainer Brad Cox, who explained the rationale for returning to California.

Cox said the First Lady was “coming up a much larger field, and definitely a deeper field.” As for distance, Cox said “I think with a good trip she can get the mile and a quarter. That’s probably the biggest question mark, if she’s as good at a mile and one quarter as she is at a mile. But she’s in great form now, and we’re excited.”

They should be. Beau Recall is legit, but Paved is the one to beat.

Race 10 – McKinzie (4) is 4-5 to win the Grade 1 Awesome Again. He should lead gate to wire over 2-1 second choice Higher Power (1). This race is a mile and one eighth, which is perfect for McKinzie. Next month in the mile and one-quarter BC Classic, it might be a different story.

First post Saturday, 12:30.