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Thumb_brad-free Brad Free , Santa Anita , 12/28/2019 , Race 1 - DRF Live Posted : Dec 28, 2019, 8:35 AM

Opening day perspectives

First post 11 a.m. Saturday for the meet opener. Handicapping considerations …

Race 1 – Debut 2-year-old Devil Made Me Doit (5) is ready to fire, according to clocker Toby Turrell in the Daily Racing Form Santa Anita Clocker Report. Turrell commented on the colt’s three recent works. Dec. 2 – “Abundance of speed …” Dec. 11 – “… total cruise control while getting the best over older winner Sold It ...” Dec. 18 – “Caps the series with rider standing up in irons …” Devil Me Made Me Doit, 4-1, will fire.

Race 2 – Clear skies Saturday, but rain early this week left the turf course with “give.” Turf condition available later. Keeperof Ofthe Stars (1) drops in class into this minor stake for 3-year-old fillies, Brill (2) is bred for turf and could set the pace, Lucky Peridot (6) is fresh and ready. Mishmash group.

Race 3 – Rickie Nine Toe’s (5) should win this maiden-claiming sprint for 2-year-old fillies if she reproduces her runner-up debut. Trainer Brian Koriner is 6-for-10 with maiden-claiming favorites the past two and a half years.

Race 5 – Midcourt (6) won four straight, but Grade 1-winning comebacker Gift Box (2) is working well and enters the Grade 2 San Antonio as the class of the field and most likely winner on the card. Gift Box is listed at 9-5. Not likely. Expect much shorter.

Race 6 – Not the greatest bunch of 3-year-old turf fillies in the Grade 1, mile and a quarter American Oaks, but evenly matched. Distance-proven Vibrance (8), eligible to the first allowance condition, is this handicapper’s tepid choice. Program favorite Lady Prancealot (5) will rally late, Giza Goddess (7) is expected to rate while dropping in class, Mucho Unusual (3) reunited with Joel Rosario. Tough call.

Race 7 – The Grade 1 La Brea Stakes offers the play of the day in 6-1 comebacker Mother Mother (9), who has worked super for her comeback and has a running style that suits the tepid pace scenario. First Star (1) will rally late, and if Bellafina (5) reproduces her runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, this race is history.

Race 8 – Tough to envision Grade 1 winner Mirth (7) getting beat in this Grade 3 turf route. By the way, based on the early portion of the 2018-19 winter meet, there is absolutely no correlation between course condition and course profile. Last winter on “firm,” 20 percent of turf routes (mile, mile and eighth) were won by the pacesetter. On “good,” 17 percent were won by the pacesetter. Last winter on “firm,” 44 percent of turf routes were won from the middle or back of the field, 52 percent on “good.” The notion that speed carries on a wet course is simply not true.

Race 9 – Apparently, odds-on Omaha Beach (5) is a cinch in the Malibu according to the pre-race hype. But sharp Grade 1-winning shipper Complexity (2) will give the favorite a battle. Not that 5-2 on Complexity is a bargain.

Race 10 – The 15-1 shot Originaire (2) shortens to a mile and gets pace to run at as one of most intriguing high-odds gambles on the card. His rivals in the Grade 2 Mathis Brothers Mile are tough – Mo Forza (5) and Neptune’s Storm (6). For bettors that find themselves “stuck” late in the day, the deep closer Originaire could provide rescue.

Race 11 – Totally Tiger (11) favored on the drop.

Most probable winner – Gift Box, race 5. Best value play – Mother Mother, race 7. Best longshot gamble – Originaire, race 9.

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