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Thumb_thumb_mcgee Marty McGee , Gulfstream Park , 12/17/2020 - DRF Live Posted : Dec 17, 2020, 10:55 AM

Selections and Analysis (and a Rainbow 6 play) for a 10-race Thursday card at sunny Gulfstream Park

With the East Coast blanketed by snow today, an added emphasis falls on racing at warmer destinations such as Gulfstream Park, where the local conditions for a 10-race Thursday card are ideal (mostly sunny skies and a high of 82), leading to a fast main track and firm turf ahead of 12:35 ET first post.

Here follows a race-by-race breakdown of the entire card, with selections and the full Analysis reprinted here in DRF Live (three of my original top picks were early scratches, so some of the copy has been amended accordingly).

I’ve also added a suggested $48 ticket in the Rainbow 6 ahead of Race 5, and with a $1.1 million pool guarantee, I’ll be playing it IRL “just in case I’m walking around lucky today and don't even know it,” as Jim Murray might’ve said. Good luck and stay warm …

 

Race 1

Picks: 1-6

A 10-race Thursday card starts with all turf races staying ON, given the long-range SoFla forecast of only a minimal chance of rain. My original selection, NEVER MY LOVE (3), is a SCR, leaving PRETTY RACHEL (1) on top; she’ll try the turf for the first time after finishing second in 3 of her first 4; why not. LADY JAE (6) also goes first turf after showing noticeable improvement in her second start.

 

Race 2

Picks: 5-2

Had intended to lean heavily on the Midwest shipper CLEVER TALE (3) here, but she completes my personal all-SCR Daily Double. Defaulting instead into WORDS OF DEVINE (5), who returns from a 10-week layoff still looking for her first win since one of The Brothers Klesaris haltered her more than a year ago; can loom prominently when returning fresh as the outside speed. GASPARILLA BLAST (2) surely didn't beat much when quickly going thru her first 2 conditions, but the 2-for-3 mark is hard to knock.

 

Race 3

Picks: 7-8-5

PRINCESS CORO (7) knocked on the door several times for the King Guillermo folks amid a stop-and-start campaign during the latter half of this year, and now it's back to the grass while also having benefit of being fitted with a reasonable tag; steady work slate and this prime placement suggest Avila has her ready to do her very best. Right alongside, DRAWNTOMUNNY (8) can factor in when catching a flyer from the open-air outer box; latest is forgivable (off turf), as is the two-back Jersey mile; worth a very close look. SHOUG (5) has been away nearly a year; worth noting the Al Shaqab homebred has had no fewer than 16 timed works locally for Ralph & Co. since late July.

 

Race 4

Picks: 6-2

High-end mdn.-claiming sprint deserves the well-worn "quality over quantity" description, with all but Air Cavalry likely to draw her share of tote action. Gotta default to the Pletcher dropper, EXACT (6), as she jams in for her first tag when comfortably drawn in the outside box with the turf-to-dirt angle very much in play; barn is humming on all cylinders, having won 4 races here Saturday; no excuses with Saez doing as he pleases. PATTY H (2) also comes well spotted for Cox, the '20 Eclipse candidate who's in his first month as a SoFla regular; be no surprise here following those decent tries up north. SNACKSTER debuts for a winning barn.

 

Rainbow 6 ticket ($48 for a 20-cent play):

6/8/9 with 3/5/6/7 with 2/3/4/5 with 3 with 7 with 3/8/9/10/11.

 

Race 5

Picks: 9-8-6

Hard not to notice those gaudy statistics compiled by one Jesus Lander, the trainer of KATHERN'S JOY (9), albeit with small samples: 10-for-23 this year, including 2-for-4 first off the claim; not necessarily saying he'll automatically improve this gelding off Wesley, but 'blinkers off' following the 5-week regrouping period suggests he might be onto something; outer post can afford the right kind of on-the-pace trip under Paco; clearly a major threat. Just to his inside is GOLOVKIN (8), who comes shrewdly spotted for a first-ever tag by a trainer (David) enjoying a breakthrough year; must-use to start off your Rainbow ticket. GHOSTLYPRINCE (6) and RAULITO also can contend in a fairly deep race for the level.

 

Race 6

Picks: 6-5-3

All 4 dirt tries by PRINCESS BETTY (6) have been pretty good as she now goes turf-to-dirt as the Gracida barn gets her back on the main when hiring Irad for the job; has never gone the whole mile, but certainly seems within her scope; outer post can't hurt a filly whose top Beyers clearly suffice here. BIMINI (5) adds blinks in her 2nd start for Walder, who saw her spin her wheels in the slop across town nearly 8 weeks ago; probably worth noting she's a 4-time winner. DIZZY (3) surely needed her latest.

 

Race 7

Picks: 2-4

Unknowns aplenty in a MSW dash that just so happens to have drawn several homebred 3yo colts getting a belated start to their careers for high-profile stables. Had intended to start on the outside with TONALISM (6), but he’s an early SCR (my third such top-pick SCR of the day); instead, I’ll go with the Shadwell product ARHAM (2), who has shown lots of a.m. verve up in Delray for the TAP juggernaut; surely takes big blind play here. CATCH ON EMOTIONAL (4) and the new Engler project MUTAKAAMIL both have earned Beyers to exceed the 81 race par; both appear capable if the top pick isn't up to snuff on debut.

 

Race 8

Picks: 3-9-5

Tricky little turf sprint with hybrid starter conditions seems like it could get its winner from most anywhere as this certainly looks like a 'spread' race for serious Rainbow players, but I'll be singling PAGLIACCI in the Rainbow as he stands a solid chance to finally start paying his way after being claimed by Klesaris six months ago in New York; 6yo has the class and ability to top this kind. COOP TRIES HARDER (9) has some back form to contend at this level; will be fresh and eager off the 11-week layoff when looking to take advantage of the outer box and Irad. BAD BEAT BRIAN (5) can be forgiven his latest when trying to vindicate the Maker claim.

 

Race 9

Picks: 7-2-4

Conditions of this three-turn turf race would certainly seem to agree with MORNING STRIDE (7), given the way he performed over the summer when given the extra ground; was no match for graded types in Ky., but he's likely to return to form given the McGoey regrouping and considerable class relief; normal effort makes him the one to beat as another Rainbow single. PRINCE OF ARABIA (2) has been something of a tough gauge, but he should fit well when in for the optional $20k; wheels back on 11 days' rest after surely needing the 12/5 return. CAN'T TRUMP KITTEN (4) tends to give his best every time and should be a square price. 

 

Race 10

Picks: 3-11-9

Put a red squiggly line through that turf dud turned in 13 days ago by LETS PLAY HARDBALL (3) and suddenly he's an obvious threat to follow up that 11/14 N2L off-the-grass romp at Crc with another big one for this N3L condition; 3yo is 2-for-5 since the Maker claim and now goes for a life's low tag; spotted to win and move into another barn. SAINT LARNED (11), like a handful of others in here, has been somewhat reluctant to win in 20 or more starts, but he'll be a square price when liable to trip out cleanly from the outer; can help with the get-out verticals. QUASAR MOON (9) likely will be overbet with Irad, but he's been fairly reliable about moving along for a minor share.

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