Logo-drf
Thumb_hersh Marcus Hersh , Fair Grounds , 01/16/2021 - DRF Live Posted : Jan 16, 2021, 11:49 AM

Fair Grounds - Lecomte card preview

Great to see minimal scratches on this 13-race, six-stakes extravaganza. You can find all the changes here. Ricardo Santana Jr., who has not been riding at Fair Grounds, had mounts in most races today, mainly for trainer Steve Asmussen, but isn't riding. I'm endeavoring to determine why. 

The three scratches each in the Silverbulletday and the Lecomte were previously known, and five of these horses are in other races, either on today's card or Monday's. 

As has become their practice the week of these multi-stakes cards, Fair Grounds took down the temporary turf rail this week. Races were taken off turf Thursday leaving us with only the Friday card to assess, and I won't draw too many conclusions from that small sample. However (forgive me if you're tired of me talking about this, because I have, a lot), when the fresh, innermost paths were opened up last January, February, and March, it created a meaningul rail bias that really had to be accounted for. We didn't see this effect when the rail was taken down last month, but there had been so many races taken off turf because of rain that the entire course remained relatively fresh. Now, with greater use, the nice ground along the rail might well confer and advantage, as was the case last winter, and there were hints -- if only hints - of that on Friday. I would look for early clues regarding this dynamic and perhaps even tilt plays this way on the day's first grass races.

While I am interested to see the Silverbulletday and the Lecomte, the card's last two races, these, to me, are among the least interesting races from a wagering perspective. That's because the horses who figure to be solidly favored -- Sun Path in the S'b'day and Mandaloun in the Lecomte -- are the horses I think will win. Neither do I feel like I have any deep insights into the Marie Krantz or the Colonel E.R. Bradley, making the late, all-stakes Pick 5 fairly unappealing. I do, however, favor Sonneman in the Louisiana Stakes, and he won't be the favorite.   

Now, the early Pick 5, starting with race 1, is a different kettle of fish, and I'm going to get involved. Lijana (#2) goes in race 5 and is my best bet on the card, so I can end this sequence with a decent single.

Stay Updated with DRF Morning Line

Free Race-of-the-Day video analysis & PPs,DRF Bets Gameplan Play-of-the-Day, all the latest racing news and more.

Download DRF Bets on your smartphone
© Daily Racing Form. All rights reserved.
Morning-line We need just a few pieces of information and you'll begin receiving our newsletter, right to your inbox!

Thank you for registering!

We're glad to have you on board. You'll begin receiving our newsletter upon the next scheduled delivery date. If you do not receive your first newsletter in the next 7 days, please contact our customer service team at cservice@drf.com.