“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” – written by Mark Twain

Maiden races on turf account for nearly 10 percent of Santa Anita races this season (39 of 404 total races); average field size is 9.1.  By contrast, average field size all other races combined is just 7.2. Races 1 and 5 Friday are maiden races on turf. Preview …

Race 1 – This maiden-50 turf mile is impossible. Likely pacesetter Roses and Candy (1) is favored based on her third last out; Beyond Pleasure (4) is this handicapper’s choice for Richard Baltas and Flavien Prat, 22-for-75 (29 percent) on turf the past two years.

Race 2 – Phil D’Amato and Prat are 6-for-8 with dirt-sprint favorites the past year a half, an angle that applies to “best bet" (i.e., most probable winner) Concur (2). Class drop, route to sprint, potential standout.

Race 3 – This maiden race for Calbred fillies and mares is moved from the hill to the main track; surface-switcher Whoa Nessie (8) has a shot to steal it at 6-1. The problem: only two of 24 dirt races this season at six and a half on “fast” were won by the pacesetter.

Race 4 – Speed at a mile on “fast” is okay: pacesetters won 9 of 39. Program favorite Ack (3) is the one to catch.

Race 5 – Deep closers won 9 of 13 turf races this season at a mile and one eighth, but a paucity of speed in this filly-mare maiden race gives program favorite Curlin’s Journey (10) the edge. Question is, do you really want to trust a nine-start pace-pressing maiden at low odds, on a closers-friendly turf course? Maybe not.

Race 7 – This N1X sprint is the only race this horseplayer plans to bet Friday, and only if route-to-sprint Manhattan Up (2) starts at 5-2 or higher. He looks like a standout, though program favorite Bump Bailey (4) would be formidable if he reproduces his “sloppy” track maiden win on “fast.”

First post Friday, 1 p.m.