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Thumb_brad-free Brad Free , Del Mar , 07/26/2017 , Race 1 - DRF Live Posted : Jul 26, 2017, 12:09 PM

Del Mar week two predictions, preview

When the second week of the Del Mar meet begins Wednesday, many handicappers will expect change. The turf course was kind to closers week one, with the rails down. The rails move to the outermost 30-foot setting Wednesday, but it is premature to expect a shift in profile. The course might play the same as opening week (see race 3 below).

Cold trainers are likely to emerge this week from early-season doldrums, and a 2-year-old maiden race scheduled for Saturday is expected to mark the career debut of at least two very highly regarded colts. More on that race later. Meantime, Wednesday preview …

Race 1 – Jerry Hollendorfer went 0-for-16 opening week (3 seconds, 4 thirds), and his graded winner Sircat Sally was injured and retired. The funk won’t last. Hollendorfer starts favorite Stealth Drone (6) in the opener. She drops in class, is a three-time winner over the track, and the “best horse” in this $25k claiming sprint for fillies and mares.

Race 3 – Nine of the 15 turf routes opening week were won by a horse that rallied from the second half of the field. But the course configuration changes Wednesday, when the rails are moved from a zero setting, to 30 feet.

Although the new configuration might produce a shift in the closers-friendly profile, it might not. Data from last summer suggests little or no change. During the 2016 summer meet when the rails were at 30 feet, closers won 9 of 14 turf routes (9f or less). That is virtually the same ratio as this year's opening week when the rails were down.

Anyone that predicts a change in course profile, based on the rails-up configuration, has no evidence to support the claim. Maybe the course will favor speed. Maybe it will not. This handicapper will enter the week anticipating no change, but prepared to alter that opinion if necessary.

Top Tizzy (6) is speed in race 3, one mile turf; Salsita (7) is a Hollendorfer-trained closer that looks like the most probable winner on the card notwithstanding trainer stats and rails-at-30.

Race 5 – Trainer Phil D’Amato plans to wait until later in the meet to unveil his top 2yos. In the meantime, the California-bred dropper Two Timing Lucy (5) is expected to show more speed than she did in her debut. She is 5-1, and one of the more appealing gambles on the card.

Race 6 – Last chance for Unapologetic (9), stretching to a mile and three-eighths on turf. He is a closer; the rails are at 30 feet. It’s a good test for the course profile.

First post Wednesday is 2 p.m.; the pick six starts in race 3 with a traditional carryover of $96,600.

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