On and off rain this morning, but current conditions for Whitney Day are fast and firm for strong 11-race card, including the Grade 1 Whitney and the Grade 1 Test. 

The first graded stakes race on the card is the Waya (Grade 3), for fillies and mares going long on turf. While Suffused is the horse to beat, her last couple of races leave a little to be desired, and she may be a favorite worth shooting against.  

The rest of the field appears to be pretty evenly matched. Apple Betty likes the distance and she recently defeated four of these horses when taking the River Memories gate to wire at Belmont Park, though she did have all the best of it that day, while Estrechada and Summersault emerged with reasonable excuses, at the very least.  

Graham Motion's pair of Lottie and Guilty Twelve are improving at the right time, and they also appear to handle the distance well.  

Race 5 is a second-level allowance on the grass, and it has drawn a strong field of 12. The horse to beat is Delta Prince, who was last seen running 2nd in the Grade 3 Appleton at Gulfstream back on April 1. His turf form is solid and he is one of the few in this field with upside, but he is starting back from a layoff in a pretty tough spot. 

I'm trying Alphonsus against him. Alphonsus shaped with some potential in Ireland as a young horse before going off form last summer and getting a layoff. He made his Stateside debut at Delaware with Lasix on, and he closed strongly into a slow pace after breaking slowly from the gate to easily close that field down. He faces much tougher horses today, but he may be pretty good, and he is likely to be a price.

Race 6 kicks off a guaranteed $1 million Pick 4 that ends with the Whitney. I've sided with the experienced runners drawn to the outside, including #11 National Flag, who has drawn in to the race for Pletcher.  The board will likely give us some ideas regarding the first-time starters, of which there are several of interest.  

Race 7 is the Lure. Projected has managed just one win from his four starts over here for Chad Brown, but he has run well in all of those races, and he is the horse to beat from a nice inside draw. I'm definitely using him in the pick four, but I'll also cover the improved and improving Zennor, Our Way and a little Takeover Target.

The Test is a bit of a war with several lightly-raced fillies holding potential, though the two horses to beat are the California shippers Faypien and American Gal. They are obvious and logical, and the Test may be as simple as that, but I thought there were other horses to look at. I am trying the late-running Cursor, at least to get in there somewhere, and will also use a little of Tequilita, who is getting the right turnback in this race. Tequilita is already a graded stakes winner over this distance and she projects to have some pace to run at. The one concern for me is the fact that she was a scratch from the Acorn back in June and appears to have missed a month of training after that.  

The Whitney goes through Gun Runner, and he is the horse most will be leaning on in this sequence. Based on his form so far at age 4, who could argue? The pace will be interesting, as there is a rabbit entered for Looch Racing, and Tu Brutus, who passed on a slam-dunk win in Thursday's Birdstone to run here, also has big speed. Because Gun Runner has been doing his damage on the front end lately, those horses could make the Whitney a bit more interesting, and could even bring Keen Ice into the race.   

Post time is 1:00 pm.  Scratches and changes are here.