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Thumb_beertwitternew Mike Beer , Aqueduct , 11/29/2017 - DRF Live Posted : Nov 29, 2017, 10:29 AM

Aqueduct - Early Wednesday preview

Before changes come in, let's take a look at the Wednesday pick six sequence (races 4-thru-9), which features a two-day carryover of $88k.  

Race 4:  Tizzelle looks like the clear horse to beat in the opening leg, and one many will likely lean on to some extent.  She was impressive winning her seasonal debut in her return from an extended layoff, and she has since run quite well three times without winning, including a pair of solid efforts vs. strong NY-bred stakes horses.  

The improving La Moneda is a threat following back-to-back impressive wins, though the jump from 1x to 2x can be a daunting one.  She will get lasix for the first time today.  

Broken Border is the other main threat for Jason Servis. It took her awhile to break through, but she has not gone backward since dropping down to crush maiden claimers in her lone start as a 4yo, and she is 3 for 5 this year with competitive figures. 

Race 5:  Difficult two-life claimer over a mile projects to be run at a fast pace, and there is no one to put too much faith in.  

The ML favorite is Tiz Super.  She has speed and owns to top two Beyer Speed Figures on dirt in the field, but the mile distance of this race may prove to be difficult for her to handle. 

Curiousncuriouser is dropping in class for top connections, and she will get the mile.  The question for her is readiness off the layoff.  

B Three has had the most chances but can run late if the pace falls apart and Maddy's Way has some back races vs. better that would give her a look here. 

Race 6:  Fillies and mares will go one mile on turf in the 6th.  Gold Lace is wheeling back quickly and dropping in class after taking on a tough field of allowance horses 11 days ago.  She has won three of her five starts over turf since claimed by Mike Maker and she projects for a nice trip from the inside post. 

I made her my top pick in the race, mostly because I don't really like anyone else from a win-bet perspective.  That being said, for pick six purposes, this race may require some coverage.   

Race 7:  I finally gave in and decided to give Gift Box one more chance in this one-turn mile on the main track.  He has been something of a disappointment since beginning his career with plenty of promise for Chad Brown, but he does appear to be a horse who has had his issues along the way.  The positive view of his 2017 debut at Saratoga is that he just really needed the race over a distance that is too short for him, though he didn't offer much at all in that spot.  He was better last time when finishing a clear 2nd to a horse who ran away from him in the slop.  

Not sure where he goes from here if he doesn't run well today.  

I've had enough of Governor Malibu, who hasn't run particularly well in any of his five starts this year after a surprisingly strong campaign as a 3yo.  I guess he's the "other" horse. but I can't trust him.  

The other NY-breds, Testoterstone and Papa Shot, both have races that would give them a look in here assuming they can show up with their best, and Alex the Terror offers some mild appeal as the speed off the claim for Pletcher/Repole.  He has to prove it over a mile, but he has always been a good horse.  

Race 8:  Things look almost too easy for Loki's Vengeance in this NY Stallion Series sprint.  He has run fast races, projects to play out as the main speed from a perfect outside draw, has run well off of layoffs - including a win in this race last year off the bench, and handles seven furlongs.  

He is shooting for his third straight win in this race, this one for his new trainer, Linda Rice, and if he doesn't get it I suspect it will be because he loses to the 3yo Gold for the King.  

Gold for the King's recent races may not look too compelling on paper, but he actually ran pretty well in both the Grade 2 Woody Stephens (which was just too tough for him) and in his most recent start, the Hudson, which was dominated up close to the pace.  This is a horse who ran a 92 Beyer as a 2yo and matched that figure in his 3yo debut before going no to try some tougher races.  

Race 9:  We'll see if scratches change anything in the finale, a turf sprint for NY-bred maidens.  As things stand, Lulu's Pom Pom looks like the horse to beat from the rail.  He has run fine despite losing two in a row at short prices, though it would be nice if they would let him use his speed at some point.  

Spa Treatment needs a couple of scratches to get in, but he is a threat if he makes it into the field.  He did not stretch out effectively last time, but his efforts sprinting on turf are solid and he has a real trip two starts back.  

Tizza Temper is a bounce-back candidate after failing to fire off a short layoff last time.  Her efforts on turf prior to the layoff were fine and she might wind up being better sprinting.  

 

  

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